There are many ways to explode a cat. We describe one method, which may contain elements of the method that was actually used.

The explosive was almost certainly in a compartment layer integral to the lithium polymer battery. See Laptop Bombs on Planes, Conclusion. Quoting,

The sealed laptop, tablet, and phone make reliable inspection impossible with current technology. It is impossible because the battery is a big gob of organic chemicals markedly different from the other materials of the device, but not so different from a bomb.

A  lithium polymer battery in a consumer device has three connections. Two of these are the plus  (red) and  minus (black) terminals,  used to power the device, and to charge the battery.

The third wire connects to a temperature sensor inside the battery. The sensor, known as a thermistor, has resistance that depends strongly on temperature.  The temperature of the battery is monitored to reduce the chance of a battery fire.

The sensor has two terminals, one attached to the third wire, the other connecting to the minus terminal of the battery. The thermistor is monitored by circuitry elsewhere in the pager, by applying a fixed voltage, and measuring the current. Buried in the battery, the thermistor is a barely visible dot in  x-ray view. The wires are even less visible.

All the house-keeping functions of the pager are controlled by an ASIC,  FPGA, or a microcontroller. High volume production, very low cost, the very small battery, simplicity of pager functions, and need for long standby time suggest an ASIC is used. Some ASICS contain an FPGA in the same die. Virtually all contain an EEPROM,  which contains simple code to customize pager functions.

This is important, because it makes the modification of the pager easy. Once programmed at the factory, the FPGA acquires specific functions that include control of inputs and outputs. The EEPROM code offers additional prospects for modification. One of these is the voltage applied to the thermistor inside the battery.

We make one more addition to the battery. In parallel with the thermistor, physically embedded in the thin compartment containing the plastic explosive, we place a  reverse biased zener diode, in series with a very fine wire, too small to be seen on an x-ray scanner. The wire might be coated with a thin layer of mercury fulminate.  The other end of the wire connects to the  negative terminal of the battery.

This is a very low power form of  exploding wire detonator. In normal operation the sense voltage applied to the thermistor is blocked from the wire by the zener diode. Upon receiving a code, the ASIC increases the sense voltage. When the voltage exceeds the zener diode rating, the diode will conduct, sending current to the wire. The wire then vaporizes. Boosted by the mercury fulminate or other primary explosive, this is enough to detonate the plastic explosive.

Such a sabotaged device could be assembled on a normal production line, by the substitution of two  indistinguishable parts, the ASIC and the battery. Normal inspection procedures cannot spot the mods.

A statement attributed to Israel is that they thought Hezbollah discovered this, implying that the timing of the pager explosions was not planned, but forced. This implies that  deniability may have been an original goal. One cutout, a Hungarian shell, has already been identified.

Depending upon the intended level of deniability, additional cutouts may have been employed. Malaysia and Indonesia are candidate locations, due to the long establishment of electronics assembly companies, and a lax security environment with roots in the Non-Aligned Movement, which had Sukarno as one of the founders.

(CNN) The US led on nuclear fusion for decades. Now China is in position to win the race. Quoting,

Private businesses in both countries are optimistic, saying they can get fusion power on the grid by the mid-2030s, despite the enormous technical challenges that remain.

This is an introduction to fusion skepticism. The above is baloney, fusion hype.

The press have trouble with this: the ratio of amount of energy in the magnetic field used to contain the plasma of a tokamak, to the energy released, does not equate to wall-plug efficiency, the net after deducting the power required to run the entire lab. Prediction: Nuclear fusion will NEVER reach wall-plug break-even — a concept with which the nontechnical press have difficulty, leading to misrepresentation and exploitation.

This is not it: Fusion Breakeven Is a Science Breakthrough. If you’re a  reporter, are you going to understand this, or trust the nice scientist talking to you?

Science can be bent to personal need. Scientists are, after all,  human beings who seek self-justification, a positive self image, and at least enough money to stay in their profession. In some cases, like fusion, this can be bent all the way to personal enrichment. The press, looking for a cheery story, is often the unwitting accomplice.

See “fusion skepticism”  on YouTube. The material is uniformly high quality, because fusion skeptics are not in  it for the money. Here  is a brief summation to inform your journey:

The Lawson criteria is for fusion what the rocket equation is for Mars colonization, Unlike starting a fire with matches and tinder, this criteria must be maintained the entire duration of the fusion reaction. What do you do when your fireplace won’t keep burning? Do you throw billions at it?

The fusion reactions that are the easiest to initiate and yield the most energy create a huge neutron flux. In continuous operation, neutrons tear the metal of the fusion device apart. This is swept under the rug with current devices, which operate for seconds at a time. Unlike a nuclear fission reactor,  where the neutron flux is absorbed by inert shielding material, the space outside the containment vessel of a tokamak fusion reactor  is populated by complex equipment.

Inertial confinement fusion is less susceptible to the neutron embrittlement of delicate equipment. It comes with its own advantages and its own set of problems. Without going into details, I stick with my prediction.

Aneutronic  fusion , fusion which does not create neutrons is possible, but either:

• requires an impractically high ignition temperature, exploding the Lawson criteria or
• produces too little energy in the reaction  to ever, conceivably, reach break-even.

Cold fusion has been permeated by fraud, but it has one cynical advantage: experiments are cheap. In a race in which all horses are dark, it is  the darkest. Because it is so cheap, it may be worth low-level funding.

Magnetic confinement alternatives to tokamak. Many such startups are  sucking in money. They tend to combine alternative fusion reactions with novel magnetic geometry. To paraphrase Tolstoy, they are all unhappy in their own ways. See Youtube.

For insurance, in case my prediction is wrong, ITER, the largest tokamak in the world, is under construction in France.  The goal is research data for future designs, not power production. The astute will ask: Why can’t the data be obtained by computer simulation?

Answer. The problem of plasma dynamics is so complex, involving the simultaneous application of gas dynamics, Maxwell’s equations , and nuclear physics, it is beyond the ability of the most powerful computers in the world to simulate. So we build machine after machine, in a guided stumble, not completely blind and not completely informed. The first tokamak was built in 1954,  70 years ago. That’s a lot of time, justified by “progress” that shows up in journals and press releases, not as utility.

This explains why fusion keeps sucking in money. Every new machine inspires hope. If simulation could prove fusion impractical, the money would dry up. If a person keeps doing the same thing for 70 years without success, we usually call him crazy. The impracticality of   a mathematically informed refutation is why ” fusion is  the power source of the future, and always will be.”

Fusion, like Mars colonization, or man-on-the-moon, is an unrecognized ethical dilemma for the press. If you’re writing a story that is pro-fusion, people will talk to you, people who deal in money and hope. If you’re writing a story that is anti-fusion, you talk to people who have no money or hope. The cheery-beery fusion story will get more reads, but at what cost to the nation? Rather than serve as unwitting accomplices of fusion hype, it is time for the media to inform the debate.

Despite the absurdity, this costs the nation less:  Sloppy CNN; Earth’s core has slowed so much it’s moving backward, scientists confirm. Here’s what it could mean  is.

Analogous to the Lawson criteria for fusion, traditional media need their own quality criteria,  with relevance to the social media revolution (see Att David Zaslav; Warner Bros. Discovery signals rapid deterioration of television business, sending stock plummeting.)

The criteria: Is our journalism better than YouTube?

Alex Hollings’ Sandboxx News published The wildest aircraft people THINK America operates in secret.  It’s about unacknowledged aircraft developed under the black budget. It’s a sober summation of previous articles, all well conceived, all informed by his methodical combing of budget documents and credible anecdotes. Alien technology buffs will mostly have to look elsewhere.

In my unsubstantiated opinion, Hollings missed the greatest cryptid of them all. Hints:

• It was actually deployed.
• Built in low single digit numbers.
• No code name has ever been revealed or hinted.
• No “alien technology.”
• Performance not exceeded until recent; this includes the Blackbird.
• One would have to go back to the dawn of the web, before archiving,  for relevant hints.
• Some anecdotes are relevant.
• Hides in plane [sic] sight.

Alex, I dare you  to find the aircraft. The secret is safe; the path is too arduous, the challenge too big, the risks too great. Are you game?

Today, we endure the latest  school shooting (CNN) in Apalachee, Georgia, while five people have just been shot in Kentucky (CNN) near I-75. These incidents are a particular class of violent crime, mass shooting. We start with the premise that deterrence of violent crime would carry over to mass shooting.  Let’s see how it goes.

Why America, which has long been a violent society, has become hyper-violent, is not the subject of rational debate. The cure is as vague as the cause.  Liberals want gun control and mental health initiatives. Conservatives want to hang the Ten Commandments in front of classrooms; many of the alt-right want to  abolish the separation of church and state.

These are not talking points; the two sides are deaf to each other. Though I count myself a liberal, the liberal program may combine unachievable with ineffectual. The alt-right, in the guise of divine intervention, want to take us back centuries, to the evil intolerance of village culture.  See Trump Assassination Attempt Notes.

Classic liberalism enshrines the right of the individual to freedom of thought, expression, privacy, and association, subject to the catchphrase, “Your freedom ends where my nose begins.” As this does not safeguard much space, the core has been surrounded by the framework known as law. Most of us liberals live happily within the law. Since the law is a complex abstraction, it takes some intellectual effort to pick it up. This  kind of discussion does not happen in a roadside bar. In fact, it is the least popular subject, second to, “Who was your bail bondsman for your last DUI/drug bust?”

Benjamin Franklin was among the most refined class of believers, the deist. In a letter, he referred to the necessity of organized religion, noting that otherwise, “they might never learn.” Those who seek his endorsement for a conservative program won’t get it. Franklin was a liberal. In his America, you could walk a day and see a handful of people. Firearms were clumsy and slow to use. And demands of exploiting the resources of a virgin world left little time for violence, except when those resources were in dispute.

The emptiness of the conservative program, and the unjustified optimism for liberal initiatives, leave us with nothing to return to or advance forward to. The Supreme Court has taken gun control off the table. We are trapped in an eternal present, a Ground Hog Day of slaughter. The political mantra, “This has to stop” thinly disguises our paralysis. It behooves us to innovate, which begins with questions. About a proposed measure , experience or sanction intended to deter violent crime, we ask:

• Does the experience work by influence, or deprivation of a liberty?
• Does it sacrifice innocent lives?
• Does it save more lives than it sacrifices? What is the ratio?
• Does it risk irreversible harm?
• Is it aesthetically repugnant?
• Does aesthetic repugnance damage the mental health  of innocents?
• Is there any aspect that is in conflict with bedrock beliefs and attitudes?
• Does the experience work  on an intellectual or visceral level?
• Is it universal in application, or does it require prequalification?

Let’s now consider some past methods of violent crime deterrence.

Police brutality. The history of the criminal justice system entwines this with a mix of judicial tolerance and pushback.

Brutality  was actually institutionalized in Philadelphia by Frank L.  Rizzo, who bragged that Philly was the safest of the ten largest cities in the U.S. In typical application, an individual detained by the police was beaten, driven around in the back of a police van for 12 hours, then dumped on the street in a neighborhood with an attitude hostile to his ethnic group.

It didn’t take much to set off a  Philly cop; black, long hair or LGBT  could do it. The ratio of innocent victims of police brutality to victims saved from crime has never been tallied. What ever it was, voters couldn’t stomach it. The pattern preceded Philly and has continued in other cities,  in the form of sporadic brutality and civil rights abuse.

Defund the police, the polar opposite. Though there hasn’t been a comparison of the  Minneapolis experience with Philly, the districts with the highest crime rates voted with the largest margins against defunding. Despite the tragedy of George Floyd, the police are  indispensable to their civil community.

Reform prosecution standards. Reform-minded prosecutors prioritize violent crime. This is frequently accompanied by bail reform. Proponents claim that by unburdening the criminal justice system, violent crime can be more effectively curtailed, while bail discriminates against the poor.  Whether this is actually an effective strategy is disputed. Michael Nutter, former Philly mayor, is critical of Philly’s reform prosecutor, Larry Kramer, for a variety of related reasons. (WaPo) The White DA, the Black ex-mayor and a harsh debate on crime.

 To be continued shortly, with further analysis and actual constructive proposals.

(CNN) Ukraine’s Zelensky fires Air Force chief, days after fatal F-16 crash.

The most likely cause is not a hardware failure, but an administrative  failure of the IFF Mark XII (identification friend or foe) protocol, resulting in a Patriot friendly fire incident.  Mark XII is 20  years old. Absent recent upgrades, the system is not as foolproof as current technology  permits.

An IFF transponder, as carried by an F-16, is an  automatic combination of a receiver and transmitter. When it receives an query from a friendly force, the transponder:

• Validates the request as originating from a friendly force. This is the result of a successful cryptographic operation, which requires that the aircraft IFF  computer, and ground computers, are programmed with an identical code  that changes frequently.
• If the aircraft  IFF computer validates the request, it responds with the current altitude. Upon receipt by ground receivers, the aircraft is marked as friendly. Absent recent military upgrades, this response does not provide the location, which must be separately determined from the ground.
• If the IFF request is not validated, there is no response; the aircraft status defaults to foe, allowing anti-aircraft systems to engage.

Mark XIIA Identification Friend or Foe (IFF) Mode 5 began U.S. deployment around 2013. It provides ground air defense with exact location of the friendly aircraft. Prior systems do not. The web suggests that few foreign customers have this upgrade. See Korea – F-16 Identification Friend or Foe (IFF) & Link 16 Upgrades.

In the absence of Mode  5, location must be determined by a separate system, radio direction finding (RDF). Contrary to the impression given by old war movies, it has, since 1926, been an instantaneous procedure.  Nevertheless,  it is a separate system from a Patriot battery target radar, with the difficulties of system multiplicity.

So these things must be reliable, synchronous parts of the kill-chain:

• The aircraft IFF and the ground query system codes must be up-to-date.
• The RDF system must provide accurate information.
• That information must be communicated to all Patriot batteries.
• The Patriot battery must integrate this information.
• The Patriot battery targeting function must be blocked.
• Besides administration, all the  hardware has to work.

Any failure in the chain potentiates  a friendly fire incident.

Since the IFF Mark XII protocol was adopted 20 years ago, GPS has made precise location awareness almost trivial. Mark XIIA Mode 5 can respond to query with position, in a secure manner, by use of encryption. In future developments, the query function could be integrated into the radar itself, using code division multiplexing (CDM), reducing the administrative burden of separate systems. See (IEEE) MIMO radar: Time division multiplexing vs. code division multiplexing. This is an expensive move, but likely in view of the heightened awareness  required with swarm drones.

Was Zelensky justified in firing Mykola Oleshchuk? Perhaps it was triggered by Oleshchuk’s attack on a member of parliament. Quoting (Al Jazeera) Zelenskyy fires Ukraine’s air force commander after deadly F-16 crash:

The dismissal came on the same day that Oleshchuk directed scathing criticism at a lawmaker who is deputy head of the Ukrainian parliament’s defence committee for her claims that the F-16 was downed by a Patriot air-defense system. Ukraine has received an unspecified number of the US-made systems.

Their nerves are frayed. In Japan, they say, “Fix the problem, not the blame.”

(CNN) SpaceX is about to send four people on a wild — and risky — mission into the radiation belts; Is it Safe?

Some involved individuals claim that the risk of radiation, which will take the astronauts into the lower of the two Van Allen radiation belts, is exaggerated. Maybe, maybe not. The published papers are somewhat contradictory.

Look at (Nature) Apollo Lunar Astronauts Show Higher Cardiovascular Disease Mortality: Possible Deep Space Radiation Effects on the Vascular Endothelium. Forget about the Van Allen belts. Forget what you think you know about space radiation or cosmic rays, which are compared in popular media to so many chest X-rays or CAT scans.

You thought this was going to be about cancer. Well, it ain’t. The paper observes that those Apollo astronauts who actually went all the way to lunar orbit had 5X the rate of cardiovascular disease of those astronauts who never ventured beyond low earth orbit. The paper identifies a probable cause, which is not passage through the Van Allen belts.

Probable cause: Earth has a controlling effect on the magnetic environment up to an altitude of about 50,000 miles. Above that, on their way to the Moon, they were exposed to elevated HZE radiation, mostly ions of iron (Fe+) traveling near the speed of light. They are pico-scale rifle bullets, damaging a path of tissue several hundred nanometers wide. Quoting from HZE Radiation Non-Targeted Effects on the Microenvironment That Mediate Mammary Carcinogenesis,

The galactic cosmic radiation environment consists of high atomic number (Z) and energy (HZE) charged particles that are characterized by high linear energy transfer (LET) along the particle track, i.e., densely ionizing, … During a 3-year flight in extra-magnetospheric space, 3% of the cells of the human body would be traversed on average by one Fe ion (3).

According to Apollo Lunar Astronauts Show Higher Cardiovascular Disease Mortality, the above is a likely explanation for elevated CVD:

However, when considered as a separate group, the Apollo lunar astronauts, the only group of humans to have traveled outside of the Earth’s protective magnetosphere, demonstrate a higher mortality rate due to CVD compared to both the cohort of astronauts that did not travel into space, as well as astronauts who remained in LEO (Fig. 1). …

although other explanations cannot be completely excluded. Now look at (NIH) The Effects of Galactic Cosmic Rays on the Central Nervous System: From Negative to Unexpectedly Positive Effects That Astronauts May Encounter; focus on Figure 1 and associated discussion. Quoting,

Indeed, despite the lower dose of HZE onboard ISS, the composition (Figure 1) and the chronic nature of the exposure makes orbital flight an actual model of radiation load on the Mars surface. Moreover, on the surface of Mars, astronauts will be additionally protected by the hull of the living module, which will lead to some reduction in the equivalent dose.

There is a contradiction. The discussion of Figure 1 asserts that the ISS astronauts are in a fairly high HZE environment. Over 25 years of the  ISS, excess CVD mortality has not been reported. Yet the moon-voyagers, whose exposure was brief, did have excess.

The two papers are not in exact opposition, though contradiction results. Which is more credible? The Effects of Galactic Cosmic Rays on the Central Nervous System relies on complex formulas to calculate the combined effects of disparate forms of radiation. The formulas have never been validated for the purpose. The conclusion, which emphasizes travel to Mars, is unjustifiably rosy.

Apollo Lunar Astronauts Show Higher Cardiovascular Disease Mortality has two parts. The first is purely observational; the second a lab study. The observational part is simple: They went to the Moon, and they were damaged. We will not speak of Mars.

And you won’t sell me a ticket to the inner Van Allen belt, a  celestial CAT scanner. With decades of research, HZE or no, the hazard of the Van Allen belts cannot be ignored. The belts damage even radiation hardened satellites.

There are alternatives. We are on the cusp of creation of androids, designed for the harsh environment of space, capable of conveying the emotional experience of human astronauts, yet caring not whether they live or die. The Greeks, and Virgil, did it even cheaper, with epic poetry.

Or, we could just stay home. Is there a Stockton Rush complex?

(CNN) Gen. McMaster’s blistering account of the Trump White House. Quoting,

…McMaster recounts in his new book, “At War with Ourselves: My Tour of Duty in the Trump White House,” in some ways, his most challenging tour as a soldier was his last one: serving as the national security adviser to a notoriously mercurial president.

I read McMaster’s last book, Battlegrounds: The Fight to Defend the Free World. Well written, it shared similarity to the relevance of yesterday’s weather, rapidly overtaken by events.  Mathematically, the international system is chaotic, which means that long-term evolution of the system cannot be predicted from  initial conditions. This time, he has written the right book. Even those with an international focus recognize that domestic affairs are usually, ultimately, more critical to the survival of our nation than foreign.

I look forward to reading At War with Ourselves. There is honor in faithful service to the Constitution of the United States, even in uncomfortable  circumstances.

Through the greatest of coincidences, H.R. McMaster and I  met twice, in each case unaware of the other’s trajectory. I wonder if he remembers Rocky’s pizzeria, a defunct greasy spoon joint? I hope we meet again.

A word error in a book review? CNN misquotes:

…that the indictment of a group of Russian intelligence officers for their interference in the 2016 US presidential election was “inconvertible” evidence of Russian meddling in that election.

The word in red should be incontrovertible, not inconvertible. Both are real words, with different meanings.

(CNN) SpaceX Crew Dragon capsule to return Boeing Starliner crew to Earth; A Song for Boeing  Quoting,

A SpaceX Crew Dragon capsule will bring home two NASA astronauts who have remained on board the International Space Station for about 80 days because of issues plaguing the Boeing Starliner spacecraft — marking a stunning turn of events for the beleaguered aerospace giant.

This is not stunning to the engineering profession. As soon as I had knowledge of  the publicly disclosed details of the fuel valve problem, I knew Starliner would not fly the crew return mission. It should not be stunning to journalists. It highlights the weak information flow between engineers and journalists, mediated by a cultural bias of silence among those who know and insufficient curiosity among those who want to know.

What remains stunning is that Starliner was launched with a crew.

See (CNN) Boeing, NASA may have found ‘root cause’ of Starliner spacecraft’s issues, but astronauts are still in limbo, Quoting,

“Of course, I’m very confident we have a good vehicle to bring the crew back with,” Nappi said. My bullshit detector went off….

See seven more Boeing articles. Quoting from (CNN) Prosecutors urge Justice Department to file criminal charges against Boeing over 737 Max; Prosecute Boeing!,

NASA should take a hard look at the troubled Starliner.  Advances in core technologies make it technically easy compared to the Apollo program a half a century prior. Persistent technical problems in this space capsule design, which has strong legacy roots, are indicative of design and specification problems, which are indicative of people problems — an unwelcome spinoff of bad safety culture.

A song for Boeing, courtesy of Nat King Cole:

***Straighten Up and Fly Right***

See Politics Part 6: The Missing Meta in November 8. Quoting,

Political science is, academically, a broad, inclusive subject. The media have reduced it to the tactical form, which notably lacks self-awareness. We need a term that, encompassing the tactical, engages the greater framework implied by “meta.”

Pundits of normative political science focus on polls, electoral mechanics, identity politics,  inclusiveness, “issues”, inducements like “a chicken in every pot”, with promises both practical and impractical, all leavened with a pinch of  fear.

They’ll miss something obvious to those not blinded by the intellectual framework, perhaps requiring a reminder that the electorate are not so blinded. Take a trip back to 1970:

***John Lennon***

change one word, and you’ve got it:

Make Love Not Hate

Will love last 74 days? The pundits will  search for the secret heart of America, but know this: Sometimes it lasts a lifetime.

(CNN) New video shows Ukraine striking deep inside Russia

Edit: As of 4 p.m. EST, the infographic discussed below appears to have been removed from the video, along with the part of General Mark Hertling’s impeccable commentary that was synced with the graphic. Sadly, the “moosestake” described below continues to besmirch all Moosedom.

The video contains an infographic at  1:54. Quoting,

“HIMARS Artillery Rocket System …120mm M256A1 smoothbore and 105 M668A1   rifled”

These are cannons,  not rockets. They cannot be integrated with the HIMARS system. The M256A1 is the gun of the M1 Abrams main battle tank.   The M68A1 is a much older gun, still in use on the Stryker light armored vehicle chassis as  the M1128 mobile gun system.

Should a writer on this video have basic knowledge of the difference between a cannon and a rocket? You decide.

This continues a pattern at CNN of:

• Excellence in politics.

• A decent, if often uninspired, approach towards things human.

• A high frequency of errors relating to  the physical world, such as the rotation of the earth’s core, the height a balloon can reach, or the specifications of infernal machines. See CNN, Shame! Raise Your Standards! “Russia unveils ‘Satan 2 Missile”.

Even the weight of an Alaskan moose is not immune to the blizzard of errors: Moose kills Alaska man attempting to take photos of her newborn calves . Read the article, and the included link to Alaska Department of Fish and Game; the elementary school error will be apparent.

Maybe  I should let the last one slide. It was an honest moosestake.

***Bullwinkle Gets Mad***