The past lives on in each of us, in what is known as culture. One such element, autocracy, had only occasional challenge  until revolutions of 1848. Vladimir Putin, in collaboration with the Russian Orthodox Church, has latched onto the divine right of kings.

With the demise of Communism  in China except in name, elements of Confucianism fill the ideological gap: good government, social harmony, work ethic, and respect for authority. Confucianism is not a religion; it is a system of thought with some vague religious elements, such as Tian, 天 – Heaven.  This is Xi Jinping’s own cultural heritage from China’s past: a system of thought incomparably advanced compared to most Western manifestations, predating modern, that followed the Golden Age of Greece.

We  oppose authoritarian systems. Yet it is important for us to realize that they come in many  grades of quality. Some provide good government. Some start well, though they appear time limited. Some start well and end badly.  Some slip into monstrosity. Confucianism, which co-evolved with autocratic dynasties,  holds that a ruler is deposed when he has lost the Mandate of Heaven.

Xi was met at the airport in Moscow by the Minister of Tourism. He met with an obviously ill Putin, who used ambiguous language to reject his peace plan. Xi left early, skipping a last day of meetings. It is likely that in Xi’s cultural reference, Putin has lost the Mandate of Heaven. Accordingly, provision of military aid  would go against the will of Tian. Putin’s end is so ordained.

Many in the West are surprised by the outcome of this meeting. Some may anticipate Xi will prop up Putin to prevent Russia from entering the Western orbit. We should prepare  ourselves for further surprise. Xi may realize that to make an omelet, you have to break some eggs.

The immediate post Putin period will not resemble the post-Soviet breakup, which featured profound ennui. It will be hyper-charged with violence among the elites. This may spread into the masses through those in the elite with followings, or the lower echelons of the security apparatus. A Terror will follow, a prolonged process that will result in fracturing, by the efforts of local authorities to keep the Terror out. It will end in exhaustion, but without the political evolution of rapprochement with the West. That may come later.

What Xi wants is described in Reply to China’s new Foreign Minister Qin Gang; (CNN) China’s new foreign minister warns of conflict with US, defends Russia ties.  It will be crucial for Xi to identify the moment to act.

At that moment, the Russian Federation’s sense of common identity will be superseded by multiple identities of small states without common purpose. The Russian nuclear deterrent will be void, except for Russia itself.

Economic unions  with the Asian remains of Russian Empire will be the first steps, followed by actual abrogation of the Unequal Treaties.

(CNN) China’s new foreign minister warns of conflict with US, defends Russia ties. Quoting,

“Why does the US talk up respecting sovereignty and territorial integrity on the Ukraine issue, but does not respect China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity on the issue of Taiwan? Why does the US ask China not to provide weapons to Russia while keeps selling arms to Taiwan?” Qin said.

There are two classes of reason for “not”, harms and benefits. Harms:

• Further erosion of the principle of national sovereignty.
• Complicity in massive loss of life and possible genocide.
• Europe would forever hate China. Despite recent trade blockages, there is much potential in the future.
• Tipping the ground situation towards Russia would tempt use of nuclear weapons.
• During the Brezhnev period, in 1969, the Soviets asked the U.S. for permission to conduct a nuclear first strike against China. We refused.   See (pdf) Department of State, Memorandum of  Conversation.
  
• During the period of Putin’s rule when Russian foreign policy searched for partners in the West, we were asked to identify China as the common main enemy. We refused.
• You fought the Sino-Soviet border war in 1969, preceded by the Sino-Soviet conflict of 1929.
• A Russian victory in Ukraine would strengthen the hand of the militarist nationalists, who dislike China.

Benefits. In contrast to the conquest of a small rocky island full of truculent people, great benefits may accrue to China if Russia is defeated in Ukraine. It would disarm the ideological basis of Russian imperialism. A body of opinion holds that this would result in the disintegration of the multi ethnic federation into a purely Russian component surrounded by smaller states free to choose alignments.

This may happen literally or figuratively. In either case, it affords China the opportunity to extend its sphere of influence, and possibly, dominion.  At a minimum, the states of central Asia would seek Chinese protection against  the remnants of Russian imperialism.

Even  if a formal breakup does not occur immediately, the Russian far east would be vulnerable to the strategies so successfully used by China before the 16th century to manage the barbarian tribes of central Asia, to corrupt their wills with provision of luxuries. In modern terms, the Russian Federation, away from Moscow, can be uniquely bought. This has been the bedrock of Putin’s strategy to govern the otherwise ungovernable. It worked for Putin, and it can work for you.

This is your opportunity to rectify those Unequal Treaties which are still in force with Russia. Vladivostok was ceded by  by the Treaty of Airgun, forced on the Qing Dynasty in 1858. The flag of China can fly over Vladivostok. The mineral wealth of Siberia can be yours.

Unlike the small rocky island, devoid of natural resources and full  of truculent people, the event of the above would raise very few complaints.

See also CNN: Trump’s biggest nightmare? China and Russia’s new friendship Part 2 and Vladimir Putin, Child of History.

(CNN) US Energy Department assesses Covid-19 likely resulted from lab leak, furthering US intel divide over virus origin. Quoting,

The Wall Street Journal first reported on the new assessment from the Department of Energy. A senior US intelligence official told the Journal that the update to the intelligence assessment was conducted in light of new intelligence, further study of academic literature and in consultation with experts outside government.

Academic literature is important, open source, and an indicator of research with escape potential. The open source community should do some digging.  This is entirely separate from research at Wuhan funded by NIH, which theory disallows as a source of COVID. See (CNN) Smerconish Interview with Kate Eban; COVID WIV Lab leak #3; Baltimore Gun Has no Smoke. Quoting,

The experiments at WIV were patterned after (Baric, 2015 Naturemedicine) A SARS-like cluster of circulating bat coronaviruses shows potential for human emergence. If this procedure was replicated at WIV, it could not produce COVID-19. If it resulted in general competence that was used in some other way, anything is possible.

So anything is possible. My opinion runs counter to the political blame game, which is gearing up to crucify China. This should be water under the bridge. See Did COVID Come From a Lab Redux? Quoting,

This is straight-up religion, Good versus Evil,  bastardized for political capital, the search for the guilty, an urge to distinguish between force majeure, and negligence-by-people-who-should-know-better. There is no sharp distinction. Since punishment is out of the question, what would a guilty verdict mean?

It means we have a choice, to turn a competitor into an enemy, or let it pass. Social media is arguably responsible for the magnitude of the COVID disaster, if not the origin.

Reaction to the China spy balloon is a comic miniature of this. Let’s reserve emotional investment for fundamental issues, like human rights. Perhaps China can still appreciate  the negatives of a divided world, or a world at war.

(Aljazeera) Russia again accuses Ukraine of planning ‘false flag’ attack. Quoting,

Ukraine and its allies have dismissed such accusations as cynical attempts to spread disinformation, and have accused Moscow of planning incidents itself in a bid to blame Ukraine.

Ukraine is planning to stage a nuclear incident on its territory to pin the blame on Moscow ahead of a key United Nations meeting, Russia has alleged without providing evidence.

Prior Russian assertions have not been followed by Russian use of radiological weapons. This results in opinion of the current assertion as propaganda without material consequence. This may be a grave error. We watched with concern when Russians occupied the Zaporizhzhia reactor hall, anticipating they might stage a containment breach. They did not do so,  or deploy dirty bombs, for these possible reasons:

• The prevailing winds blow towards Russia.
• Prior failure of mobilization, they were not desperate.
• Easily manufactured, dirty bombs were not present in the Russian arsenal with appropriate specification.

Now they are desperate. There has been ample time to salt aerial bombs with radioactive isotopes. In a tip of the hand, Belorussian pilots have been trained to drop “special weapons.” Belarus, a quasi nonbelligerent, may be a staging area, resulting from a Russian guess that a preemptive strike is less likely.

Effective against civilian populations, dirty bombs have been disparaged as military weapons. We have watched this war for a year, as it has evolved in ways unexpected by the military profession. It has forced a look at geography with heightened perception. The Dnipro river crossings are our focus. There are not many.

• If a bridge is hit with a 500 lb bomb, it can be repaired.
• If a bridge is contaminated by radioactive substance, without other damage, it can be washed down.
• If a bridge is hit by a 500 lb dirty bomb, it cannot be repaired. Repair activity entails too much exposure.

In countering this threat, nothing, including preemption, or provision of long range weaponry, can  be excluded from consideration. Russia’s looming “air war” makes this time urgent.

This has two considerations: interception and destruction.

Interception. A U-2 intercepted  the large Chinese spy balloon. Could a modified U-2 employ a weapon to destroy one? A laser is conceivable. But the concept of intercept is alien to the U-2 design, which is difficult to  fly even in a deliberately planned intelligence mission. See (USAF) U-2S/TU-2S. Quoting,

…These characteristics combine to earn the U-2 a widely accepted title as the most difficult aircraft in the world to fly.

Not mentioned is that, at altitude, the U-2  flies a  coffin corner as narrow as 5 knots, resulting in severe loss of maneuverability.

The classified service ceiling of the U-2 may be adequate for super-pressure balloons, easily identified by the shape, which follows geometric norms, of which the sphere is most common. Zero-pressure balloons, like the NASA “Big 60”, can easily exceed altitudes of practical airplanes. Even the Lockheed A-12 was good for a max of 95,000 feet, at a speed too fast for observation of a nearby balloon.

A short term fix. Close inspection by something like the McDonnell Douglas F-15 Streak Eagle, with high speed camera. Zoom climb is a semi ballistic maneuver that has been used for most fixed wing air-breathing altitude records, when the absolute location is unimportant. Interception would require a specialized guidance package. Kinetic destruction is conceivable, but already obsoleted by laser.

Long term, integration of interception and destruction. Integration of both functions on a commercial derivative jet, flying above the weather.  Integration of:

• Upwards facing large aperture telescope.
• Replacement of Sidewinders, unit cost $400K, by laser.

Perhaps JSTARS, slated for the boneyard, could be adapted. Occasional use may not justify a new platform.

(CNN) Ukraine is burning through ammunition faster than the US and NATO can produce it. Inside the Pentagon’s plan to close the gap.

For techies only. U.S. contract solicitations indicate the same basic method used in WW2,  the “Upsetter method”, is employed. The Upsetter forge  is a horizontal forging press.

A Signal Corps documentary explains the Upsetter method in great detail, minus the automation of the modern Scranton plant:

MANUFACTURING 3-INCH ANTI-AIRCRAFT SHELLS WORLD WAR II ORDNANCE FILM FRANKFORD ARSENAL 10414

(CNN) China accuses US of ‘illegally’ flying balloons across its airspace.

The winds off the coast of China blow in the wrong directions, away from China:

World Wind Map

***Which way the wind blows***

(CNN) A trio of new intrusions leaves America’s leaders grasping for explanations. Quoting,

A deepening national security mystery is threatening a political storm after US fighter jets scrambled three days in a row to shoot down a trio of unidentified aerial objects high over the North American continent.

To all, patience. The answer will come.  This is science.  When it comes, it will be technical, not political.

The only political aspect is, how much do you want to spend?

(CNN) Analyst thinks this is why more unidentified objects are being spotted.

CNN national security analyst Juliette Kayyem wants to know the constitution of the “bigger aperture.” I’ll explain the part that any electro-physicist or radar engineer knows.

Decluttering algorithms are essential to radar function. These algorithms are characterized by scales of time, known as time constants. Normally kept fixed, these numbers are now being varied — “swept.” For a balloon, you want a larger number than for an airplane, because in most circumstances, balloons move slower.

The “aperture” has another part. Out  of respect for secrecy, I will not discuss what I think it is.

(CNN) US military shoots down high-altitude object over Lake Huron on Sunday. Quoting,

The object was shaped like an octagon with strings hanging off it and did not appear to be carrying anything.

The octagonal shape renews interest in a balloon structure that may contain integral antennas:

• An octagon imposes a weight penalty over a spheroid, so there must be a good reason.
• Kapton, a favored plastic for planar antennas,  is inelastic and only moderately flexible.
• Design of a highly specified antenna on a curved, dimensionally unstable substrate is hopeless.

A suspended capsule containing active electronics may have been deliberately dropped.