Newsweek reports that Wesley Clark predicts a  spring offensive in Ukraine.

I agree. I made this prediction last fall. In a series of posts, beginning with Nemtsov Murder Whodunnit, it’s proposed that the Nemtsov murder is a message to Putin, from the perpetrators, to not to be less patriotic than they are.

But to say that the perps are the rebels is an oversimplification. What do we call a group that is larger than a cabal, but smaller, and more hidden than a faction? Perhaps, a complex. Dwight D. Eisenhower said, “We must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military-industrial complex.” The full speech is worth a read. Or watch  Eisenhower’s final speech, and renew your personal connection with one of the great men of the 20th Century.

At its worst, the military industrial complex was never comparable to what is happening in Russia now.  It’s mentioned here only as an example of a complex, an alliance of diffuse common interest.  But it appears that there now exists in Russia an expansionist complex, not localized purely to a faction, that by process of diffusion may now be uncontrollable.

For Putin, this is like surfing a tsunami.  There is no getting off. Does he want to? Surfing the Big One, he’s having the ride of his life.