EDIT: Nothing of what follows should be interpreted as anti-vaccine. I am pro-vaccine. I receive annual or biannual flu and covid shots. The politicization of  science is a tragedy beyond measure.

We continue from Bird Flu, Part 1.  (CDC) H5 Bird Flu: Current Situation displays

• Mammals: Sporadic infections
•  Person-to-person spread: None
• Current public health risk: Low

Dr. Deborah Birx thinks this is an underestimation of the threat: (CNN) Why America could fail again: Dr. Birx’s stark pandemic warning. There are two sides to this. One is the tendency of bureaucracies to prognosticate continuation of the status quo. The other is faith in vigilance –widespread testing — and effective intervention. Both are logical fallacies. Pure logic rarely helps us navigate messy real-life situations. This is one of those rare opportunities.

We assume, with good reason, that the current H5N1 bird flu will acquire the mutations required for efficient human-to-human transfer. Prevailing opinion is that this will occur in a single individual, a real Patient Zero, who is simultaneously infected by bird flu and a human-adapted strain. The details remain unsettled.

With many  viruses, evolution is dominated by the process of homologous recombination — mixing of the genomes of both viruses during replication in a cell.  Influenza viruses are negative-sense replicators, in which this is thought to be absent or rare. For pro/con, see Homologous recombination evidence in human and swine influenza A viruses  and Homologous Recombination Is Very Rare or Absent in Human Influenza A Virus 

The dominant process with flu is swapping entire segments of RNA,  known as reassortment.  Since flu viruses lack proof-reading after replication, the above is supplemented by a high frequency of random, single point mutations.

So how does Patient Zero arise? Does a rare event of homologous recombination transfer a human-adapted mutation  into the avian virus? Or does it occur, per prevailing opinion, by spontaneous point mutation in Patient Zero, with subsequent reassortment ? Does it occur in the chicken or the human? The deepest, most arduous  and thorough study is based on a single human case, a veterinarian who died in the Netherlands  in 2003. See Emergence of the Virulence-Associated PB2 E627K Substitution in a Fatal Human Case of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus A(H7N7) Infection as Determined by Illumina Ultra-Deep Sequencing. The conclusion, with good confidence, is that it happened in the human. Human adaptation markers, PB2 E627K and HA K416R, were found in the patient, but not the chickens. Quoting,

Human adaptation markers including PB2 E627K as well as HA K416R substitutions were absent in the A(H7N7) viruses obtained from both the source and control farms.

and

Herfst et al. demonstrated that PB2 E627K was a prerequisite for the development of airborne A(H5N1) virus in ferrets (7). The accumulation of other human adaptation markers than PB2 E627K observed in avian influenza viruses from poultry and the wild bird population suggests that the introduction of this particular mutation in avian influenza viruses dramatically increases the virus pandemic potential and public health risk.

Quoting (CDC, 12/26/2024) Genetic Sequences of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A(H5N1) Viruses Identified in a Person in Louisiana,

The genetic sequences of the A(H5N1) viruses from the patient in Louisiana did not have the PB2 E627K change or other changes in polymerase genes associated with adaptation to mammals and no evidence of low frequency changes at critical positions.

As with the 2003 Netherlands case,

Of note, virus sequences from poultry sampled on the patient’s property were nearly identical to the virus sequences from the patient but did not have the mixed nucleotides identified in the patient’s clinical sample, strongly suggesting that the changes emerged during infection as virus replicated in the patient.

The is the primary basis of  the CDC assertion of low risk. It also explains the phlegmatic attitude towards testing. Testing animals is not likely to find a mutation that occurs first in Patient Zero. And it’s very hard to do:

Initial attempts to sequence the virus from the patient’s clinical respiratory specimens using standard RNA extraction and multisegment-RTPCR (M-RTPCR)1 techniques yielded only partial genomic data and virus isolation was not successful…

This is not something you can pick up with a  home kit. The elaborate techniques of CDC cannot be widely applied: we could have 50,000 bird flu test-strip positives, all unadapted  for human transmission. When point mutation, or debatable recombination result in a suite that includes PB2 E627K and other virulences, Nature will outflank us, if not with the  first Patient Zero,  then by successors.

The result will be a cluster of human cases. According to proponents of vigilance,  CDC could contain the cluster, stopping the outbreak.

This neglects the root cause of flu pandemics:   a world population, antigenically naive to a new strain of flu, that without forewarning, manifests in a series of Patient Zeros, a series without limit, a game of Whac-A-Mole. Sooner or later, vigilance would fail, or be circumvented by Patient Zeros elsewhere  in the world. The event, failure of containment, will be described by CDC and others as a rapid, almost discontinuous rise in threat risk.

Suppose vigilance identifies and isolates the first Patient Zero and cluster. Is there a response that could prevent the series without limit? One option would be to produce a vaccine that would be effective against future Patient Zeros of H5N1 recombination. But this is an expensive proposition for a vaccine that might not work. Flu vaccines are  generally lousy. In a bad year, with a strain mismatch, effectiveness against a strain that is already circulating can approach zero.  What are the chances of a vaccine against a virus that has not yet developed in a future Patient Zero?

The public has been entertained, almost romantically, by sequencing of numerous genomes, the “genetic code of life.”   In organisms with stable genomes, this knowledge accretes. Exact knowledge of the genome has been successfully exploited  with human genetic diseases. In single strand reverse-sense RNA viruses such as influenza, the genome is constantly changing, by several processes:

• Spontaneous mutations at a single point, common in the flu virus  because it has no error checking mechanism on duplicated strands. The slow change in the genome resulting from point mutation is referred to as antigenic drift.
• Reassortment, responsible for the run-of-the-mill flu debacle.
• A remainder, to be classified as mystery,  genetic recombination between disparate genomes, by mechanisms that have never been seen,  except by the result.

In contrast with higher organisms with relatively stable genomes, the main focus of flu virus research is mutation. Yet the rate of mutation is elusive, stymied by the shape of this strand versus that, the tendency of mutations to be nonviable,  the lack of sufficiently detailed dynamical models, and a lack of clever solutions. Perhaps neural networks will help us out of this jam. Until then a  napkin calculation, “What is the chance of bird flu outbreak this winter?” cannot have a  bottom up approach.

There are other ways. Primitive, but worth a napkin.

(click to enlarge)

“Digital Candy.” for your tree.  Rebelle paint software..

(Fox) NJ mayor says there’s radioactive material missing amid mysterious drone sightings.

EDIT 12/19/2024 to add This Is What Happened At White House Briefing On Mysterious Drones: New Jersey Mayor Michael Melham.

This is not something I want to be out in front of. Whoever is out in front is responsible for public order. I’ll leave it to public officials, such as Belleville Mayor Michael Melham. Listen carefully to every word of his interviews.

The missing/stolen nuclear material, specified as a germanium-68 pin source, is very weak; by itself, it has no potential for mass casualties. The apparent theft could be indicative of an attempt to assemble material for a dirty bomb. Melham remarks on a separate issue that is more concerning, the port of Newark.

Social media cite reports of elevated Geiger counter readings in two public parks in the NJ/NY area. These are not official readings taken  with instruments certified as calibrated. The cited website receives uploaded readings submitted by individuals whose identities have not been verified. In the absence of corroboration, these claims should be discounted.

If you have an interest in digging, these facts may be helpful:

• A uranium explosive device is so weakly radioactive, it tends to defy detection by purely passive means. There are alternatives, which I will not describe.
• A plutonium explosive device is somewhat more radioactive, still stretching the technology of detection. The lower the quality of the plutonium, the more radioactive it is.
• A dirty bomb is intensely radioactive, with a sizeable detection radius. An individual who attempts to assemble one could die before completing the project.

Now Melham is responsible for public order. I hope he is vetting his sources very carefully.

A new review of open source information suggests that if the existence of “large” drones is factual, and certain other observations are accurate, those drones are part of a “black program.”

This has the uncertainty of a noisy information background populated by untrained observers, fearful people, pranksters, and a minority of media outlets with a penchant for exaggeration and exploitation. Only a small percentage of observations are relevant.

I have a pretty good idea of the purpose of such a program. However, discussion raises an ethical dilemma. The program, if it exists, is a good one, beneficial to U.S. national security, and harmless to New Jersey residents.  Discussion, even  if it derives from open source, would damage our common national interest.

The sensitivity of the public to UFOs, and the activities of copycat pranksters, have highlighted a completely separate, neglected problem, one of great technical difficulty. With the exception of the most basic type of drone, there is no algorithmic way to  determine the location of a drone operator. Even with a basic drone, this is hampered by  ephemeral flight. This is actually easier to do on the battlefield  than in a civil environment.

The volume and desperate tone of public servants has reached a shrill crescendo, without any indications of subtle thinking. So here’s a clue, in the form of a riddle. At least some members of law enforcement will get  it:

You’re on the case of a bank robber. He’s knocked off three banks, but hasn’t left enough clues for your dragnet. You really want to get this guy. What is the one thing you don’t want him to do?

If you take this where it should go, it will explain a lot.

***Dragnet***

There are specific reasons relevant to investigation which give the appearance of government inaction. This is certainly not the case. To avoid compromising the investigation, I will not elaborate further.

(CNN) Assad Regime Falls.

The likely course of the next few years is a rough analogy to the French Revolution. Read this  first: Iran and The Anatomy of Revolution. The stages:

• Euphoria.
• Displacement — or should we say, liquidation — of the moderates, such as Abu Mohammad al-Jolani. The origins of Hayʼat Tahrir al-Sham imply the presence of many sleepers, awaiting their call as single-use suicide weapons.
• Domination by the extremists, who currently hide under the umbrella of expedient unity.
• Terror, forced by  the competence of internal enemies.
• Impulse to extend the revolution, or defend it against perceived threats, by military aggression. Since the dominant Sunni religion is now identical with the Gulf Arabs, a new funding source, illicit donations, supplements Captagon.

If this progression is arrested, it will be by bloodbath purge, Stalinists over Trotskyites. We continue with the assumption it will not.

The first or second victim will be Iraq, centering on Anbar, where extremist elements will attempt to redress the “oppression” of the Sunnis. Depending on U.S. presence or absence, Iranian intervention may result. Who will be the new Napoleon? Not Abu Mohammad al-Jolani. New figures will emerge.

The true colors show with the conditional amnesty offered the Alawites, contingent on abandoning heresies.

The speculations of Turkey in Syria; The New Ottoman Empire; a Brief Note about Cultural Affinity and Turkey & the New Ottoman Empire, are now unlikely. In brief interventions into Idlib, unacceptable losses occurred, revealing doctrinal weaknesses in Turkish land forces.  The lessons of Ukraine shadow adventurist impulses, which would require years of preparatory nationalist foment by Erdoğan.

Most recent revolutions in the Middle East have not become externally militaristic. The Iran revolution did, with stages that mimicked the French. All three have a religious element, immoderate components,  and perception of external threats. Türkiye may well rue the day they let the leash slip on their Idlib proxy.

(CNN) Scientists find huge trove of rare metals needed for clean energy hidden inside toxic coal waste. Quoting,

These so-called rare earths are a cluster of metallic elements, with names like scandium, neodymium and yttrium, which exist in the Earth’s core. They have a critical role in clean technology, including electric vehicles, solar panels and wind turbines.

This is FALSE. The rare earth elements are not believed to exist in the core to appreciable degree. They have been concentrated by geochemical processes in the mantle.

(CNN) Police release unmasked photo of person wanted for questioning in CEO shooting. Quoting,

Among the interviews they’ve been conducting, law enforcement interviewed a female employee at the hostel who said, at one point, she asked the then masked man to lower his mask while flirting with him — which is when the photos released by the New York Police Department today were captured, the official said.

This indicates that  the suspect is more than normally communicative, inclined to engage a stranger when a less socially capable individual would isolate.

Quoting,

Law enforcement sources told CNN “depose” was written on a shell casing from a round that was fired into the victim. “Delay” was written on a live round that was ejected when the shooter appeared to be clearing a jam.

This indicates the suspect has a grudge,  common when healthcare insurance denies coverage perceived as life-saving for a fatal disease.

The social nature of the suspect implies that he inevitably verbalized his discontent to others. In combination with the photo,  and the likely region of residence, this implies a clue soon to drop.

An important clue as to his identity may shortly come from someone who knows him.

Google Search: United Healthcare denies claims.

(CNN) Calls grow for South Korea’s president to resign after martial law chaos.

There has been widespread comment at the political ineptitude of the move. About the motivation of Yoon Suk Yeol, there are these possibilities:

• He simply wanted to subvert democracy in South Korea, which is currently in legislative deadlock.
• The current North Korea vibe gives  him really bad nerves.
• He thinks he knows something.
• He actually knows something.

In the past few months, some analysts have seen disturbing preparations by the  North. See also (BBC) Man in US charged with allegedly shipping weapons to N Korea.  Despite the problematic presidency of Yoon Suk Yeol,  the fourth possibility should not be dismissed.

Is there a hair-trigger mechanism in place, subject only to the whim of Kim Jong Un? This question cannot be answered by open-source.

President Elect Trump should be aware of the circumstances that preceded the Korean War. Quoting  from (National Archives) US Enters the Korean Conflict,

However, the entry of the United States into the conflict signaled a reversal of policy toward Korea. Although it backed the government of Syngman Rhee, the United States had begun withdrawing its troops from South Korea in 1948. As late as January of 1950, Secretary of State Dean Acheson had implied that the Korea Peninsula lay outside the all-important “defense perimeter” of the United States, a statement that some took to mean that the United States would not defend the ROK from communist attack.

Some historians fault Acheson for tipping Stalin’s judgement. What lurked in Stalin’s head we will never know, but it’s plausible.

***Be careful what you say***