(CNN) Prosecutors urge Justice Department to file criminal charges against Boeing over 737 Max.

• January 9, 2024, (CNN) Boeing executives to convene all-hands safety meeting at its 737 Max factory after yet another crisis
• December 24, 2019, Boeing & Safety Culture Redux
• March 15, 2019, US Air Force, Boeing has ‘severe situation’ , Safety Culture
• March 13, 2019, Boeing, FAA, Space Shuttle Challenger, Richard Feynman, and Safety Culture

Five years of documentation, preceded  by earlier, weaker signals, and a CEO in denial, indicate  entrenched behavior, undeterred by the threat of federal felony prosecution. While the entire company culture is degraded, some employees of Boeing are so morally compromised, their behavior so entrenched, that only the force of law can effect reform at Boeing.

Federal prosecution is the only way to restore international confidence in this iconic American enterprise. Absent this action, Boeing will slowly sink beneath the waves.

NASA should take a hard look at the troubled Starliner.  Advances in core technologies make it technically easy compared to the Apollo program a half a century prior. Persistent technical problems in this space capsule design, which has strong legacy roots, are indicative of design and specification problems, which are indicative of people problems — an unwelcome spinoff of bad safety culture.

Prosecute Boeing!

(CNN) Priest and six law enforcement officers killed in attacks on synagogues and church in Russia’s Dagestan.

On March 22, Tajik recruits to ISIS-K perpetrated the Crocus City Hall attack. This blog responded with (CNN) ISIS claims responsibility for attack in busy Moscow-area concert venue that left at least 60 dead. Quoting,

This will force action by Kadyrov, with troops withdrawn from Ukraine.

This deserves explanation. What does Ramzan Kadyrov have to do with Tajiks? What do Tajiks, who entered Russia through Kyrgyzstan in close proximity to the lower Volga, have to do with Chechnya and the Caucasus as a whole? There are two major concentrations of Islam in Russia, in the lower Volga, and the Caucasus. Surveys from 20 years ago indicated that, in contrast to the Caucasus, the lower Volga was not radicalized, with apathy towards issues outside of Russia.  See Putin’s Job Works on Him; His Apology; Navalny Detained, specifically Idel-Ural.

The explanation manifests in (CNN) Russia accuses Ukraine of mounting ‘sabotage’ attack across border. Quoting,

The Freedom for Russia Legion, Russian Volunteer Corps, and associated groups are inspirational to ethnic secession.  In the near term, the [typo corrected] Caucasus will become restive, awakening old   memories and yearnings.

The degraded Russian army is incapable  of a  third Chechen or first Dagestan war. Only Kadyrov has a credible chance of nipping a conflict in the bud, though even this is doubtful.

The Tajik connection is not based on geography, though radicalization may be creeping through the lower Volga. It is based on information, which inherently supports non-local connections.

Dagestan is potentially a greater threat to Russia than Chechnya. It is much larger, and much of it is covered by the North Caucasus mountains. Across the Caspian, only a sliver of land blocks it from Tajikistan.

A factor not explicitly part of Crane Brinton’s criteria in The Anatomy of Revolution is geographic sanctuary for revolutionists. Quoting Revolution in Venezuela,

As noted, the accession of the extremists would be facilitated by rural sanctuary. But “melting away” of the rebels into the countryside may be hindered by rural majorities of Maduro supporters. Open sources do not illuminate. This exhausts Brinton analogies.

Dagestan is potentially that sanctuary. There has been much speculation on how Russia might disintegrate. This mechanism has renewed attraction:

• An alignment of disparate interests coalesces. They are not predominantly Muslim, though the initial refuge is the North Caucasus mountains.
• Scattered throughout Russia, the  interests are peripheral, far from the center of power, eluding the most pervasive surveillance.
• The flash point is the conscription of Muslim men.
• The magnitude of the inciting event could be as small as the Tunisian fruit seller.
• The peripheral interests dig their way towards the center. Russia has been called a country of one city; the center is Moscow.

Putin is not completely unaware of this problem, though his confidence it can be managed is likely misplaced. The demotion of Nikolai Patrushev must be considered in this context. (Reuters) Putin to keep demoted ally Patrushev on Russia’s Security Council. Patrushev is personally dangerous to Putin, which is precisely why Patrushev remains a member of the security council.

Keep your friends close and your enemies closer.

If the story was told in logical order, we would begin with sialic acid, and end with public health policy.  We choose instead an approach based on how a potential threat focuses interest, with increasing demand for detail as the threat evolves. So we begin with a synoptic view of the major questions.

Is a pandemic inevitable?  The evidence is highly suggestive of a yes. Despite all the advances in computational biology, the question cannot be answered like a mathematical proof. There are two types of suggestive evidence:

• Lab studies which have modified the genomes of H5N1 and similar viruses, pinpointing changes which enhance lethality and transmission in specific animal models. The  transfer of the result to a conclusion about the human adapted virus could be  frustrated by a fitness defect, which would nullify the proposed adaptation. Don’t bank on it.
• Widespread adaptation of H5N1 to  mammals has already occurred.  This implies that the genetic instability of H5N1, characteristic of an RNA virus, is actually engaged in Darwinian evolution on a massive scale. Why should  humans be the exception? Don’t bank on it.

Over the past 20 years, bird flu has killed half of the known human cases, which have been clustered in China and southeast Asia. Is this the kind of mortality we should expect?

Paracelsus, the first toxicologist, said “The dose makes the poison”.  He observed that how poisonous a substance is depends upon the quantity. Viruses are pathogens, which resemble poisons with the added ability to replicate within the body. To some extent, the quote of Paracelsus applies to pathogens. While some viruses are infective in near zero numbers, most infections require a minimum number of virus particles to cause disease, while severity often depends on quantity.

Unlike poisons, which are substances lacking the power of replication,  viral load grows roughly exponentially from the initial exposure, but only in the absence of immune system response. This is never the case. The immune system has two major logical divisions, the adaptive, and the innate. While the adaptive response takes days, weeks, or longer to respond,  the innate immune system responds immediately, reducing the growth of viral load, possibly allowing the individual to survive until the adaptive system kicks in.

This is why “The dose makes the poison” has relevance.  Asian cases likely involved the consumption or preparation of infected poultry. This may constitute much higher exposure  than human-to-human droplets and aerosols, which may imply much lower human mortality in  a pandemic. The 50% could also be confounded if H5N1 is common in these regions as a mild, under-diagnosed disease. Don’t count on it.

The complexity of the question is highlighted  on a Texas dairy farm. (CBS) Cats died after drinking raw milk from bird flu-infected cows.  The cows were sickened by H5N1, but most did not become critically ill. The farm had 24 cats, which were fed unpasteurized milk from the cows. Half of the cats died within several days. Despite all the analytic tools of modern biology, it is not feasible to answer, in the short term, whether humans resemble cats or cows.

Has surveillance been adequate? With so many mammalian vectors, it’s an  impossible problem. Cows eat hay, potentially contaminated by rodents, which caught it from birds…feel free to explore  the endless permutations.

Are pandemic preparations inadequate? (CNN) We aren’t doing enough about the risk of bird flu – but we can. Quoting,

Even today, the United States doesn’t know the extent of spread among animals or humans due to insufficient testing and tracking. The 7-1-7 target for outbreak detection and response should be our guiding principle…My organization’s latest Epidemics That Didn’t Happen report highlights how countries with responsive health systems prevent outbreaks from becoming epidemics through careful planning, early detection, and swift action.

I am extremely skeptical. Rather than niggle each point, note that:

• Excepting Finland’s H5N1, the diseases mentioned in Epidemics That Didn’t Happen have not manifested, in the past 50  years, as more than regional epidemics. They lack the adversarial capabilities of flu.
• Quoting,  “If one country responds to H5N1 well, that’s not enough. Microbes know no borders.” This is true, but human stupidity has unfathomable depth.
• H5N1 is now a worldwide, pan-animal-class zoonosis. It could jump to humans in myriad ways beyond any realistic, achievable monitoring.
• No influenza pandemic has ever been  stopped.

Can we be immunized now? Original antigenic sin is an obstacle for flu immunization in absence of the actual strain.  It makes this strategy questionable. Curiously, COVID seems to be unaffected by this phenomenon.

My recommendations:

• Quadruple cell-based vaccine manufacturing capacity. 140 million doses in six months is woefully inadequate. Diversify suppliers and technologies. Abandon egg-based production.
  
• Re-examine every aspect of public health messaging, which in the case of COVID resulted in a wide swath of irrational behavior.
• Hope for the best, but prepare for the worst.

(CNN) US and Ukraine sign new security agreement on G7 sidelines.

The agreement is not a treaty, and is not binding on the U.S. Let us hope that it will serve as an potent piece of symbolism, as did FDR’s fireside chat on December 29, 1940, which gave birth to the phrase, “arsenal of democracy.” Entering the real world as figuration, as many phrases do, the arsenal became an aspiration. A year later, when Pearl Harbor thrust America into war, aspiration became fact. Quoting,

“We must be the great arsenal of democracy. For us this is an emergency as serious as war itself. We must apply ourselves to our task with the same resolution, the same sense of urgency, the same spirit of patriotism and sacrifice as we would show were we at war.”

Joining the Arsenal, Europe has made great strides in proactive support for Ukraine; this is the occasion to ask for more. See For Techies Only: (CNN) Ukraine is burning through ammunition faster than the US and NATO can produce it. Inside the Pentagon’s plan to close the gap.

The process of making dumb artillery shells has changed little since 1939, when the documentary was filmed in Philadelphia. It requires little or no automation. How many shells could they make by such a primitive process? (Wikipedia) Second Battle of El Alamein is instructive. Quoting,

…The fire plan had been arranged so that the first rounds from the 882 guns from the field and medium batteries would land along the 40 mi (64 km) front at the same time.^[43] … The shelling plan continued for five and a half hours, by the end of which each gun had fired about 600 rounds, about 529,000 shells.

529,000 shells in a single battle. The provision by the U.S. and/or Europe of a million shells in a year to Ukraine becomes a mere token. Perhaps a reminder is in order, courtesy of (full text of speech) American Rhetoric:

“This is not a fireside chat on war. It is a talk on national security; because the nub of the whole purpose of your President is to keep you now, and your children later, and your grandchildren much later, out of a last-ditch war for the preservation of American independence, and all of the things that American independence means to you and to me and to ours.

The only things holding us back from providing Ukraine with Russian shell parity are costs, regulations which are petty against the fight for life, and bureaucratic sloth.  All of these can be swept aside with economic war powers. Europeans, step up! You have nothing to lose but a future in chains!

***FDR’s  “Great Arsenal of Democracy” speech***

(CNN) US intelligence assesses Houthis in Yemen in talks to provide weapons to al-Shabaab in Somalia, officials say.  Quoting,

The intelligence raises the alarming possibility that a marriage of convenience could make things worse both in Somalia and in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, where the Houthis have launched regular attacks on commercial shipping and US military assets since the war in Gaza began.

A specific motive was anticipated in US official: Iran has moved missiles to Persian Gulf. Quoting,

Where could missiles be emplaced and launched in a deniable way? A locale must be lawless, buyable, and deniable. It must adjoin the Red Sea,  which must be transited by the U.S. forces that use the Suez Canal. Lawless locations are implied by pirate activity. Most of the pirate havens have been cleaned out. Pirate activity  persisted in  the Galmudug region of Somalia  till at least 2017. (FP)  Somalia’s Pirates Are Back in Business. This shows what is possible. perhaps further up the coast towards Bab el Mandeb.

Eritrea, inside the Red Sea, above and adjacent to the strait Bab el Mandeb, is geographically perfect.  The Eritrean Islamic Jihad implies contested territory that Iran could rent for missile emplacements, which can be effectively camouflaged.

With missile emplacements on both shores of the Red Sea, the Houthis might hope for absolute interdiction  of maritime traffic. Quoting from CNN,

A potential deal could offer a new stream of financing for the Houthis, at a time when US officials say there are signs that the group’s primary patron, Iran, has some concerns about the group’s attack strategy. “Being able to sell some weapons would bring them much needed income,” the senior administration official said.

Highlighting the emergence of the Houthis as an independent actor, there are multiple hazards for Iran:

• The ejection of French influence and Western militaries  from the Sahel was accompanied  by the substitution of Russian influence and mercenaries, considered more effective by the current crop of despots against Al-Shabaab. The Russians, allies of  Iran, are likely victims of Houthi weapon sales.
• The effective closure of the Red Sea would be unacceptable to what used to be called the Third World.
• The likely result of Houthi success would be a broader and more effective sanctions regime against Iran, which would indirectly diminish the Houthis and inconvenience major trading partner Russia.

In consequence, the Houthi problem will fester, going up, down, and sideways. It might motivate the West to empower ECOWAS.

(CNN) Donald Trump guilty on all 34 felony charges.

See Manhattan DA Trump Felony Charge Will Go to Jury.

The devil is in the details, of translating a  noun, “supremacy” of the Supremacy Clause, to a verb, “preempt”, with the adverbs “broadly” or “narrowly.”

Trump’s appeal will be broadly based on the  Supremacy Clause. By use of the Supremacy Clause, the Federal Election Commission claims broad preemption of state election laws. This includes, as a debatable point of law, denial of the right of a state to enforce federal election statutes.

While the Federal Election Commission claims broad preemption, the actual case law favors the prosecution.

The case law favors the prosecution; appeals courts have allowed incidental use of federal election statutes, where the federal statutes are not actually subject to prosecution in a state court.

I’ve misplaced the case law; it’s out there.

Putting aside human messiness, consider a situation where each juror is like an independent coin flip. Since this is a criminal case, unanimity is required.

If the chance each juror votes for conviction is 99%,  the chance of conviction  is 0.99¹² • 100%=  89%.

If the chance each juror votes for conviction is 95%,  the chance of conviction  is 54%.

If the chance each juror votes for conviction is 90%,  the chance of conviction  is 28%.

If the chance each juror votes for conviction is 85%,  the chance of conviction  is 14%.

This is why the court of public opinion is a mediocre predictor of jury verdicts.

(CNN) ‘Soviet-style purge’: Expert on Putin arresting military brass.

The suggestion is that this is not really motivated by a drive against corruption. If it were, it would be a terrible miscalculation by Putin. He has miscalculated, but not on grounds he knows so well.

The salary of a Russian mid-rank general is around $35K / year, for which his complicity is required in,  since January, an average of 964 daily casualties – delivering young Russian men to death or disability. He could make more slaughtering chickens in the West. So what keeps him going?

Without the corrupt inducements of the Russian military, nothing. Those beneath him on the promotion ladder see their future inducements vanish.

This logic  implies that Putin’s purge must be accompanied by a not-quite-visible element of possibly revised corruption. The present system must continue, perhaps with explicit authorizations from above, in return for the one element that has been a constant of his reign – loyalty.

Watch the colonels, denied the Mercedes of their dreams. (CNN) ‘I’m smiling’: Ret. Lt. Gen. Hertling reacts to Putin news; Putin takes Command.

The pot simmers. Premature, perhaps, but not to be discounted: Power Transition in Russia? Revolution? Part 3 — Has Revolution begun?

***Double, Double Toil and Trouble***

(CNN) US assesses Russia likely launched a counter space weapon last week.

For a description of a conventional, non-nuclear weapon, see Mysterious Russian satellite; It’s a Tristatic Locator.

The Russian weapon inevitably enjoys a cost exchange advantage over the largest category of U.S. spy satellites; cost translates directly to capabilities. Optics for the largest birds require multiple years to manufacture. Several possible mitigations exist:

• Stealth, which is already in use.

• Transition to  platforms with unpredictable mobility (large Delta-v budget), such as the Boeing X-37 space plane.

• Low cost satellites, with severely reduced capability.

This discussion is non-nuclear.

(CNN) China’s newest aircraft carrier heads to sea for first time.

Quoting,

 As for the US Navy’s size advantage over the Fujian, the Ford displaces 100,000 tons and the 10 Nimitz-class ships 87,000 metric tons.

This is incorrect. Ford and Nimitz are within 3000 tons of each other.  The writer may have conflated different load conditions, metric and English ton units, or both.

Quoting,

With a displacement of 80,000 metric tons, the Fujian dwarfs the People’s Liberation Army Navy’s (PLAN) two active carriers, the 66,000-ton Shandong and the 60,000-ton Liaoning.

“Dwarf” is not appropriate. “Incremental” is.

Really interesting questions, such as

• electrical power generation
• performance of the electromagnetic catapult system
• modern armor and survivability
• availability of insensitive munitions, key to survivability
• quality of the structural steel
• weapons system integration
• durability of the propulsion plant

are not addressed. This is sloppy, lazy journalism.