Today, we endure the latest  school shooting (CNN) in Apalachee, Georgia, while five people have just been shot in Kentucky (CNN) near I-75. These incidents are a particular class of violent crime, mass shooting. We start with the premise that deterrence of violent crime would carry over to mass shooting.  Let’s see how it goes.

Why America, which has long been a violent society, has become hyper-violent, is not the subject of rational debate. The cure is as vague as the cause.  Liberals want gun control and mental health initiatives. Conservatives want to hang the Ten Commandments in front of classrooms; many of the alt-right want to  abolish the separation of church and state.

These are not talking points; the two sides are deaf to each other. Though I count myself a liberal, the liberal program may combine unachievable with ineffectual. The alt-right, in the guise of divine intervention, want to take us back centuries, to the evil intolerance of village culture.  See Trump Assassination Attempt Notes.

Classic liberalism enshrines the right of the individual to freedom of thought, expression, privacy, and association, subject to the catchphrase, “Your freedom ends where my nose begins.” As this does not safeguard much space, the core has been surrounded by the framework known as law. Most of us liberals live happily within the law. Since the law is a complex abstraction, it takes some intellectual effort to pick it up. This  kind of discussion does not happen in a roadside bar. In fact, it is the least popular subject, second to, “Who was your bail bondsman for your last DUI/drug bust?”

Benjamin Franklin was among the most refined class of believers, the deist. In a letter, he referred to the necessity of organized religion, noting that otherwise, “they might never learn.” Those who seek his endorsement for a conservative program won’t get it. Franklin was a liberal. In his America, you could walk a day and see a handful of people. Firearms were clumsy and slow to use. And demands of exploiting the resources of a virgin world left little time for violence, except when those resources were in dispute.

The emptiness of the conservative program, and the unjustified optimism for liberal initiatives, leave us with nothing to return to or advance forward to. The Supreme Court has taken gun control off the table. We are trapped in an eternal present, a Ground Hog Day of slaughter. The political mantra, “This has to stop” thinly disguises our paralysis. It behooves us to innovate, which begins with questions. About a proposed measure , experience or sanction intended to deter violent crime, we ask:

• Does the experience work by influence, or deprivation of a liberty?
• Does it sacrifice innocent lives?
• Does it save more lives than it sacrifices? What is the ratio?
• Does it risk irreversible harm?
• Is it aesthetically repugnant?
• Does aesthetic repugnance damage the mental health  of innocents?
• Is there any aspect that is in conflict with bedrock beliefs and attitudes?
• Does the experience work  on an intellectual or visceral level?
• Is it universal in application, or does it require prequalification?

Let’s now consider some past methods of violent crime deterrence.

Police brutality. The history of the criminal justice system entwines this with a mix of judicial tolerance and pushback.

Brutality  was actually institutionalized in Philadelphia by Frank L.  Rizzo, who bragged that Philly was the safest of the ten largest cities in the U.S. In typical application, an individual detained by the police was beaten, driven around in the back of a police van for 12 hours, then dumped on the street in a neighborhood with an attitude hostile to his ethnic group.

It didn’t take much to set off a  Philly cop; black, long hair or LGBT  could do it. The ratio of innocent victims of police brutality to victims saved from crime has never been tallied. What ever it was, voters couldn’t stomach it. The pattern preceded Philly and has continued in other cities,  in the form of sporadic brutality and civil rights abuse.

Defund the police, the polar opposite. Though there hasn’t been a comparison of the  Minneapolis experience with Philly, the districts with the highest crime rates voted with the largest margins against defunding. Despite the tragedy of George Floyd, the police are  indispensable to their civil community.

Reform prosecution standards. Reform-minded prosecutors prioritize violent crime. This is frequently accompanied by bail reform. Proponents claim that by unburdening the criminal justice system, violent crime can be more effectively curtailed, while bail discriminates against the poor.  Whether this is actually an effective strategy is disputed. Michael Nutter, former Philly mayor, is critical of Philly’s reform prosecutor, Larry Kramer, for a variety of related reasons. (WaPo) The White DA, the Black ex-mayor and a harsh debate on crime.

 To be continued shortly, with further analysis and actual constructive proposals.

(CNN) Ukraine’s Zelensky fires Air Force chief, days after fatal F-16 crash.

The most likely cause is not a hardware failure, but an administrative  failure of the IFF Mark XII (identification friend or foe) protocol, resulting in a Patriot friendly fire incident.  Mark XII is 20  years old. Absent recent upgrades, the system is not as foolproof as current technology  permits.

An IFF transponder, as carried by an F-16, is an  automatic combination of a receiver and transmitter. When it receives an query from a friendly force, the transponder:

• Validates the request as originating from a friendly force. This is the result of a successful cryptographic operation, which requires that the aircraft IFF  computer, and ground computers, are programmed with an identical code  that changes frequently.
• If the aircraft  IFF computer validates the request, it responds with the current altitude. Upon receipt by ground receivers, the aircraft is marked as friendly. Absent recent military upgrades, this response does not provide the location, which must be separately determined from the ground.
• If the IFF request is not validated, there is no response; the aircraft status defaults to foe, allowing anti-aircraft systems to engage.

Mark XIIA Identification Friend or Foe (IFF) Mode 5 began U.S. deployment around 2013. It provides ground air defense with exact location of the friendly aircraft. Prior systems do not. The web suggests that few foreign customers have this upgrade. See Korea – F-16 Identification Friend or Foe (IFF) & Link 16 Upgrades.

In the absence of Mode  5, location must be determined by a separate system, radio direction finding (RDF). Contrary to the impression given by old war movies, it has, since 1926, been an instantaneous procedure.  Nevertheless,  it is a separate system from a Patriot battery target radar, with the difficulties of system multiplicity.

So these things must be reliable, synchronous parts of the kill-chain:

• The aircraft IFF and the ground query system codes must be up-to-date.
• The RDF system must provide accurate information.
• That information must be communicated to all Patriot batteries.
• The Patriot battery must integrate this information.
• The Patriot battery targeting function must be blocked.
• Besides administration, all the  hardware has to work.

Any failure in the chain potentiates  a friendly fire incident.

Since the IFF Mark XII protocol was adopted 20 years ago, GPS has made precise location awareness almost trivial. Mark XIIA Mode 5 can respond to query with position, in a secure manner, by use of encryption. In future developments, the query function could be integrated into the radar itself, using code division multiplexing (CDM), reducing the administrative burden of separate systems. See (IEEE) MIMO radar: Time division multiplexing vs. code division multiplexing. This is an expensive move, but likely in view of the heightened awareness  required with swarm drones.

Was Zelensky justified in firing Mykola Oleshchuk? Perhaps it was triggered by Oleshchuk’s attack on a member of parliament. Quoting (Al Jazeera) Zelenskyy fires Ukraine’s air force commander after deadly F-16 crash:

The dismissal came on the same day that Oleshchuk directed scathing criticism at a lawmaker who is deputy head of the Ukrainian parliament’s defence committee for her claims that the F-16 was downed by a Patriot air-defense system. Ukraine has received an unspecified number of the US-made systems.

Their nerves are frayed. In Japan, they say, “Fix the problem, not the blame.”

(CNN) SpaceX is about to send four people on a wild — and risky — mission into the radiation belts; Is it Safe?

Some involved individuals claim that the risk of radiation, which will take the astronauts into the lower of the two Van Allen radiation belts, is exaggerated. Maybe, maybe not. The published papers are somewhat contradictory.

Look at (Nature) Apollo Lunar Astronauts Show Higher Cardiovascular Disease Mortality: Possible Deep Space Radiation Effects on the Vascular Endothelium. Forget about the Van Allen belts. Forget what you think you know about space radiation or cosmic rays, which are compared in popular media to so many chest X-rays or CAT scans.

You thought this was going to be about cancer. Well, it ain’t. The paper observes that those Apollo astronauts who actually went all the way to lunar orbit had 5X the rate of cardiovascular disease of those astronauts who never ventured beyond low earth orbit. The paper identifies a probable cause, which is not passage through the Van Allen belts.

Probable cause: Earth has a controlling effect on the magnetic environment up to an altitude of about 50,000 miles. Above that, on their way to the Moon, they were exposed to elevated HZE radiation, mostly ions of iron (Fe+) traveling near the speed of light. They are pico-scale rifle bullets, damaging a path of tissue several hundred nanometers wide. Quoting from HZE Radiation Non-Targeted Effects on the Microenvironment That Mediate Mammary Carcinogenesis,

The galactic cosmic radiation environment consists of high atomic number (Z) and energy (HZE) charged particles that are characterized by high linear energy transfer (LET) along the particle track, i.e., densely ionizing, … During a 3-year flight in extra-magnetospheric space, 3% of the cells of the human body would be traversed on average by one Fe ion (3).

According to Apollo Lunar Astronauts Show Higher Cardiovascular Disease Mortality, the above is a likely explanation for elevated CVD:

However, when considered as a separate group, the Apollo lunar astronauts, the only group of humans to have traveled outside of the Earth’s protective magnetosphere, demonstrate a higher mortality rate due to CVD compared to both the cohort of astronauts that did not travel into space, as well as astronauts who remained in LEO (Fig. 1). …

although other explanations cannot be completely excluded. Now look at (NIH) The Effects of Galactic Cosmic Rays on the Central Nervous System: From Negative to Unexpectedly Positive Effects That Astronauts May Encounter; focus on Figure 1 and associated discussion. Quoting,

Indeed, despite the lower dose of HZE onboard ISS, the composition (Figure 1) and the chronic nature of the exposure makes orbital flight an actual model of radiation load on the Mars surface. Moreover, on the surface of Mars, astronauts will be additionally protected by the hull of the living module, which will lead to some reduction in the equivalent dose.

There is a contradiction. The discussion of Figure 1 asserts that the ISS astronauts are in a fairly high HZE environment. Over 25 years of the  ISS, excess CVD mortality has not been reported. Yet the moon-voyagers, whose exposure was brief, did have excess.

The two papers are not in exact opposition, though contradiction results. Which is more credible? The Effects of Galactic Cosmic Rays on the Central Nervous System relies on complex formulas to calculate the combined effects of disparate forms of radiation. The formulas have never been validated for the purpose. The conclusion, which emphasizes travel to Mars, is unjustifiably rosy.

Apollo Lunar Astronauts Show Higher Cardiovascular Disease Mortality has two parts. The first is purely observational; the second a lab study. The observational part is simple: They went to the Moon, and they were damaged. We will not speak of Mars.

And you won’t sell me a ticket to the inner Van Allen belt, a  celestial CAT scanner. With decades of research, HZE or no, the hazard of the Van Allen belts cannot be ignored. The belts damage even radiation hardened satellites.

There are alternatives. We are on the cusp of creation of androids, designed for the harsh environment of space, capable of conveying the emotional experience of human astronauts, yet caring not whether they live or die. The Greeks, and Virgil, did it even cheaper, with epic poetry.

Or, we could just stay home. Is there a Stockton Rush complex?

(CNN) Gen. McMaster’s blistering account of the Trump White House. Quoting,

…McMaster recounts in his new book, “At War with Ourselves: My Tour of Duty in the Trump White House,” in some ways, his most challenging tour as a soldier was his last one: serving as the national security adviser to a notoriously mercurial president.

I read McMaster’s last book, Battlegrounds: The Fight to Defend the Free World. Well written, it shared similarity to the relevance of yesterday’s weather, rapidly overtaken by events.  Mathematically, the international system is chaotic, which means that long-term evolution of the system cannot be predicted from  initial conditions. This time, he has written the right book. Even those with an international focus recognize that domestic affairs are usually, ultimately, more critical to the survival of our nation than foreign.

I look forward to reading At War with Ourselves. There is honor in faithful service to the Constitution of the United States, even in uncomfortable  circumstances.

Through the greatest of coincidences, H.R. McMaster and I  met twice, in each case unaware of the other’s trajectory. I wonder if he remembers Rocky’s pizzeria, a defunct greasy spoon joint? I hope we meet again.

A word error in a book review? CNN misquotes:

…that the indictment of a group of Russian intelligence officers for their interference in the 2016 US presidential election was “inconvertible” evidence of Russian meddling in that election.

The word in red should be incontrovertible, not inconvertible. Both are real words, with different meanings.

(CNN) SpaceX Crew Dragon capsule to return Boeing Starliner crew to Earth; A Song for Boeing  Quoting,

A SpaceX Crew Dragon capsule will bring home two NASA astronauts who have remained on board the International Space Station for about 80 days because of issues plaguing the Boeing Starliner spacecraft — marking a stunning turn of events for the beleaguered aerospace giant.

This is not stunning to the engineering profession. As soon as I had knowledge of  the publicly disclosed details of the fuel valve problem, I knew Starliner would not fly the crew return mission. It should not be stunning to journalists. It highlights the weak information flow between engineers and journalists, mediated by a cultural bias of silence among those who know and insufficient curiosity among those who want to know.

What remains stunning is that Starliner was launched with a crew.

See (CNN) Boeing, NASA may have found ‘root cause’ of Starliner spacecraft’s issues, but astronauts are still in limbo, Quoting,

“Of course, I’m very confident we have a good vehicle to bring the crew back with,” Nappi said. My bullshit detector went off….

See seven more Boeing articles. Quoting from (CNN) Prosecutors urge Justice Department to file criminal charges against Boeing over 737 Max; Prosecute Boeing!,

NASA should take a hard look at the troubled Starliner.  Advances in core technologies make it technically easy compared to the Apollo program a half a century prior. Persistent technical problems in this space capsule design, which has strong legacy roots, are indicative of design and specification problems, which are indicative of people problems — an unwelcome spinoff of bad safety culture.

A song for Boeing, courtesy of Nat King Cole:

***Straighten Up and Fly Right***

See Politics Part 6: The Missing Meta in November 8. Quoting,

Political science is, academically, a broad, inclusive subject. The media have reduced it to the tactical form, which notably lacks self-awareness. We need a term that, encompassing the tactical, engages the greater framework implied by “meta.”

Pundits of normative political science focus on polls, electoral mechanics, identity politics,  inclusiveness, “issues”, inducements like “a chicken in every pot”, with promises both practical and impractical, all leavened with a pinch of  fear.

They’ll miss something obvious to those not blinded by the intellectual framework, perhaps requiring a reminder that the electorate are not so blinded. Take a trip back to 1970:

***John Lennon***

change one word, and you’ve got it:

Make Love Not Hate

Will love last 74 days? The pundits will  search for the secret heart of America, but know this: Sometimes it lasts a lifetime.

(CNN) New video shows Ukraine striking deep inside Russia

Edit: As of 4 p.m. EST, the infographic discussed below appears to have been removed from the video, along with the part of General Mark Hertling’s impeccable commentary that was synced with the graphic. Sadly, the “moosestake” described below continues to besmirch all Moosedom.

The video contains an infographic at  1:54. Quoting,

“HIMARS Artillery Rocket System …120mm M256A1 smoothbore and 105 M668A1   rifled”

These are cannons,  not rockets. They cannot be integrated with the HIMARS system. The M256A1 is the gun of the M1 Abrams main battle tank.   The M68A1 is a much older gun, still in use on the Stryker light armored vehicle chassis as  the M1128 mobile gun system.

Should a writer on this video have basic knowledge of the difference between a cannon and a rocket? You decide.

This continues a pattern at CNN of:

• Excellence in politics.

• A decent, if often uninspired, approach towards things human.

• A high frequency of errors relating to  the physical world, such as the rotation of the earth’s core, the height a balloon can reach, or the specifications of infernal machines. See CNN, Shame! Raise Your Standards! “Russia unveils ‘Satan 2 Missile”.

Even the weight of an Alaskan moose is not immune to the blizzard of errors: Moose kills Alaska man attempting to take photos of her newborn calves . Read the article, and the included link to Alaska Department of Fish and Game; the elementary school error will be apparent.

Maybe  I should let the last one slide. It was an honest moosestake.

***Bullwinkle Gets Mad***

(CNN) At least 61 dead after passenger plane crashes in Brazil.

The  ATR 72 twin engine turboprop had an airspeed of about 40 knots when  it was observed in a flat spin. There is a  strong historical cause for propeller driven aircraft with both reciprocating and turboprop engines.

The most likely single failure point is  the variable pitch/feathering mechanism of the left side propeller, which may have been consequent to gearbox failure. In normal operation, the angle of the propeller blades relative to the air stream is varied to run the engines at maximum efficiency.

If this adjustment is disrupted, the propeller can become a source of high drag, a windmill powered by the forward kinetic energy of the airplane. In order to fly on one engine, the blades of  the failed propeller are feathered, oriented parallel to the air stream. Failure of the propeller to feather potentiates a crash.

The result of uneven drag is adverse yaw, in this case to the left, caused by a still functioning right side engine/propeller. The pilots may have attempted to regain control by reducing power to the right engine. This would account for the low airspeed, which would not have been the choice of any pilot.

Since the advent of multi-engine variable pitch propeller aircraft, failure of a propeller to feather has been the cause of hundreds, if not thousands, of crashes.

Jet aircraft are immune to this particular problem.

(CNN) Warner Bros. Discovery signals rapid deterioration of television business, sending stock plummeting. Quoting,

“It’s fair to say that even two years ago, market valuations and prevailing conditions for legacy media companies were quite different than they are today,” Zaslav said. “And this impairment acknowledges this.”

The classic example of economic obsolescence is the buggy whip, used with horse-and-carriage, which vanished, except for the novelty market, with the coming of the automobile. More recently, in  20 years of tepid effort, Eastman Kodak failed to adapt to the digital age; even though they were an early innovator in digital technology. See Att: David Zaslav; Future of CNN.

Kodak’s failure came not from inability to develop digital technology, but from a legacy of thought that was unable to grasp the future. The challenge to media  is analogous. Quoting,

To be fair, WBD is not the only once-high flying legacy media behemoth struggling to find its footing in a shifting landscape upended by the Netflix revolution…

The above contains the seed of a great error. There was a revolution in delivery media, from cable/physical to  web, which is just about complete. The revolution of the moment is social. The media companies are so behind the curve, they are fighting the last war. Quoting,

Zaslav did talk up other parts of the WBD business, describing the company’s Max streaming platform as “doing very, very well” with “tremendous upside.”

In  microcosm, ignoring the social revolution, Max is doing well. In macrocosm, it’s an Outer Banks house on the beach that has just raised its stilts another six feet, or backed up another block from the ocean. It doesn’t look good long term.

The method of media delivery, and the social modality, are separate issues, connected only by the need for immediacy. Speed is a relative parameter, which in earlier times was supplied by the Pony Express. The social revolution flattens social hierarchies. Fast or slow, speed without adapting to the new hierarchies will result in dissipation of the great media companies. Quoting,

Paramount Global, a one-time titan, has stumbled and found enormous difficulty reorienting its business around streaming. The Shari Redstone-led company, which struck a merger deal last month with David Ellison’s Skydance, has lost 27% of its value this year.

The attempt of the media companies to reinvent themselves from the inside is hampered by the same legacy of thought that caused Kodak to become a shrunken raisin. This stems from the belief that no one from outside their business can understand their business. The self imposed isolation is no less striking than Japan before Commodore Perry sailed into Tokyo Bay in 1853. The companies rely on highly skilled financial optimization and resource allocation in place of real innovation.

These strategies, as skilled as they may be,  cannot meet the current challenge, of preserving wealth or creating new. Japan was a highly optimized society, isolated from the fruits of the industrial revolution. It took Perry’s forcible entry to spur Japan’s ascent to modernity. The capitalism equivalents are the hostile takeover, or bankruptcy. Given the prominence of the media companies, Pareto’s theory of circulation of the elites is also relevant.

The rapid evolution of our society is the product of a mix of technology, structured social media, and the unpredictable spontaneity of the human mind. Time  itself has compressed; twenty years become one, in which traditional media infrastructure are devalued to irrelevance.

To navigate this fractured landscape, you need a social theorist. I am one; see Social Virtual Reality, a Paradigm for Social Change, a look into the far future that no longer seems so distant. In June 2023, I wrote about  the CNN dilemma in Att: David Zaslav; Future of CNN. Quoting,

If there is a long-term future for CNN, it is to be found in new approaches to:

• • • Immediacy, allowing some bypass of format considerations that were relevant in the broadcast era.
    • Enrichment of Information flow.
    • New approaches to controversy.
    • Connection with viewers, which can be mediated by AI.

I would like to play a part in fashioning a viable future for an organization with a strong moral compass.

Since that time, additional actionable concepts have manifested.

Mr. Zaslav, I am at your service.

This  covers most of it: Soleimani Killing Makes no Difference; Politics Muddys; Remember Pearl Harbor.

If an individual embodies an ideology, a system, or a non-transferable web of control, then assassination, death, or removal from power can potentially change the course of history.  Examples:

• Hitler is preeminent in  cult of personality,  the then-extant oath of personal loyalty to the “fuhrer”, nontransferably embodied in a unique individual.
• Stalin, who ranks close behind, survived by devouring his subordinates; many think he was assassinated by Beria.
• Hirohito, embodiment of the divine, whose position in postwar Japan was preserved by MacArthur to facilitate governance.
• Countless cult leaders, scaling in size from Charles Manson to David Koresh to Jim Jones to Father Charles Coughlin.
• Osama bin Laden is a special case. His liquidation was effective, for particular reasons you may ponder.

Cases that made little or no difference:

• Qasem Soleimani.
• F.D.R., whose death occurred late in the war, long  after isolationism restrained U.S. commitment.
• J.F.K., disputed by those who argue he would have withdrawn  U.S. forces from Vietnam.
• Martin Luther King, whose martyrdom could not halt the tide of civil rights.
• Abraham Lincoln; who many polls identify as the most widely admired person in the world.

Various megachurch preachers straddle the line.  Some terrorist leaders are irreplaceable, while others are not. An attempt to distill a simple rule can be frustrating. Cults of personality are simple. Other cases are more complex. In some societies or groupings, it is possible for the image of a public figure to be broadly delegated, along with principles and causes. In other societies, the mission or cause is  is inextricably embodied in the living individual. Or the image could be a role, interchangeably filled by many aspiring actors. See Baghdadi Dead; the Role Looking for an Actor.

Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas are not characterized by cults of personality or acting jobs. Broad delegation is fostered, which implies that assassinations cannot cause  functional change.

It pays to know the difference, if you can figure it out.