(CNN) Assad Regime Falls.
The likely course of the next few years is a rough analogy to the French Revolution. Read this first: Iran and The Anatomy of Revolution. The stages:
- Euphoria.
- Displacement — or should we say, liquidation — of the moderates, such as Abu Mohammad al-Jolani. The origins of Hayʼat Tahrir al-Sham imply the presence of many sleepers, awaiting their call as single-use suicide weapons.
- Domination by the extremists, who currently hide under the umbrella of expedient unity.
- Terror, forced by the competence of internal enemies.
- Impulse to extend the revolution, or defend it against perceived threats, by military aggression. Since the dominant Sunni religion is now identical with the Gulf Arabs, a new funding source, illicit donations, supplements Captagon.
If this progression is arrested, it will be by bloodbath purge, Stalinists over Trotskyites. We continue with the assumption it will not.
The first or second victim will be Iraq, centering on Anbar, where extremist elements will attempt to redress the “oppression” of the Sunnis. Depending on U.S. presence or absence, Iranian intervention may result. Who will be the new Napoleon? Not Abu Mohammad al-Jolani. New figures will emerge.
The true colors show with the conditional amnesty offered the Alawites, contingent on abandoning heresies.
The speculations of Turkey in Syria; The New Ottoman Empire; a Brief Note about Cultural Affinity and Turkey & the New Ottoman Empire, are now unlikely. In brief interventions into Idlib, unacceptable losses occurred, revealing doctrinal weaknesses in Turkish land forces. The lessons of Ukraine shadow adventurist impulses, which would require years of preparatory nationalist foment by Erdoğan.
Most recent revolutions in the Middle East have not become externally militaristic. The Iran revolution did, with stages that mimicked the French. All three have a religious element, immoderate components, and perception of external threats. Türkiye may well rue the day they let the leash slip on their Idlib proxy.