(CNN) Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar killed in Gaza, Israel confirms.
An evil man has died. We allow ourselves a brief celebration. Then we realize this is not a case of Ding Dong The Witch is Dead. It resembles the killing of Soleimani. See Solemani Killing Makes no Difference; Politics Muddys; Remember Pearl Harbor.
Iraq after Saddam Hussein is suggestive of future politics. Despite the comparatively moderate damage of the war, and the enlightened governance of the Coalition Provisional Authority, there ensued an insurgency powered by extreme cultural disaffection of some elements, which could not be contained by the desire of the majority for peaceful reconstruction.
Israel lacks even the limited good will extended to the Coalition Provisional Authority. Israel can rule Gaza, but it cannot establish civil government there. Since the damage to life and property is similar to post-war Nazi Germany, where reconciliation was successful, it is reasonable to ask why this is an obstacle. The answer: it isn’t. The real obstacle is cultural friction of different religious mythologies.
The only group that has a chance with Gaza is Fatah, which governed it until 2006, when it was kicked out after the 2006 Palestinian legislative election, and a small subsequent war. Having been kicked out by Gazans as a corrupt and sclerotic organization, it is doubtful they would be welcomed back. For Netanyahu, it would be a step towards the unwanted two-state solution.
If Fatah were to come in without strong popular support, it would be eaten from the inside by what remains of Hamas, who would use it as cover. The elimination of Hamas leaders is no obstacle. The field of hate has been manured and plowed.
The script of this counterfactual history is easy to write, because it has been used so many times. Give yourself some restful minutes with this, before reality intrudes:
***Ding Dong The Witch is Dead. ***