(CNN) Plans to execute Robert Roberson paused after judge approves restraining order just 90 minutes before his scheduled execution.

In the U.S., a person can be convicted and executed for murder via circumstantial evidence — without witnesses to the crime. The quality of this form of evidence can vary widely.

The uniqueness of fingerprints has been claimed to be as high as one in  64 billion. This has come into judicial  question with the observation that there is no uniquely established way to compare them.  It depends upon the expert. Nevertheless, if we divide the uniqueness by an arbitrary million, we get 64,000, still useful as circumstantial evidence.

DNA, another form of circumstantial evidence, also relies on experts. As with fingerprints, admissibility was established by common  law precedent.  The human genetic code is more unique than fingerprints, which are actually determined by DNA. Alas, DNA has a drawback. The molecule is extremely stable, resistant to sterilization methods for pathogens. Unlike fingerprints, DNA can travel, contaminating objects distant from the source. Hence, labs use disposable plastic containers and tools. Improper collection techniques can implicate the innocent.

Despite the debates, which center around one-in-a-million versus one-in-a-billion, these are reliable, well studied tools, which obey the law of large numbers. The shortcomings are largely removed by the judicial process. What remains would be worrisome in  isolation.

Fortunately, the justice system does not rely exclusively on technical methods. The  gold standard is the testimony of witnesses. It is frequently supplemented by other forms of circumstantial evidence. These include expert testimony, which encapsulates technical expertise that, unlike fingerprints and DNA, have not been validated as standard tools.

Robert Roberson was convicted of shaking his child, causing her death. The conviction relied on  expert testimony that the injuries were caused by shaking, not by a fall from a bed. Expert testimony which is not validated by the law of large numbers is frequently contradicted by other experts, with spectacle in the courtroom.

It satisfied the jury. Should it? If the testimony of experts were validated in the same way as fingerprints and DNA, you would have to shake 64,000 babies, and drop another 64,000. The question before all of Texas is not whether it is likely Roberson is guilty. It is whether he is guilty “beyond reasonable doubt.”

Neither is it about the correctness of judicial procedure. By gun or by needle, Texas is cavalier about human life. Let the justice who believes justice has been served throw the switch.

(CNN) Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar killed in Gaza, Israel confirms.

An evil man has died. We allow ourselves a brief celebration. Then we realize this is not a case of Ding Dong The Witch is Dead. It resembles the killing of Soleimani. See Solemani Killing Makes no Difference; Politics Muddys; Remember Pearl Harbor.

Iraq after Saddam Hussein is  suggestive of future politics.  Despite the comparatively moderate damage of the war, and the enlightened governance of the Coalition Provisional Authority, there ensued an insurgency powered by extreme cultural disaffection of some elements, which could not be contained by the desire of the majority for peaceful reconstruction.

Israel lacks even the limited good will extended to the Coalition Provisional Authority. Israel can rule Gaza, but it cannot establish civil government there. Since the damage to life and property is similar to post-war Nazi Germany, where reconciliation was successful, it is reasonable to ask why this is an obstacle. The answer: it isn’t. The real obstacle is cultural friction of different religious mythologies.

The only group that has a chance with Gaza is Fatah, which governed it until 2006, when it was kicked out after the 2006 Palestinian legislative election, and a small subsequent war. Having been kicked out by Gazans as a corrupt and sclerotic organization, it is doubtful they would be welcomed back. For Netanyahu, it would be a step towards the unwanted two-state solution.

If Fatah were to come  in without strong popular support, it would  be eaten from the inside by what remains of Hamas, who would use it as cover. The elimination of Hamas leaders is no obstacle. The field of hate has been manured and plowed.

The script of this counterfactual history is easy to write, because it has been used so many times.  Give yourself some restful minutes with this, before reality intrudes:

***Ding Dong The Witch is Dead. ***

(click to enlarge)

(CNN) Male artists ‘peak in their 40s,’ Tracey Emin says. Quoting,

Renowned British artist Tracey Emin has said that many male artists, like her contemporary Damien Hirst, “peak in their 40s,” whereas women retain their creative force as they age. … “Women have the capability of doing that (carrying on) as long as they’re given the opportunity to do it,”…

Bosh! Picasso painted till  2 a.m. the night before he died, at age 91, in 1973. Dali was not so lucky, as he became physically impaired years before he passed. Luck of the draw, not sex, though some women artists, such as Helen Frankenthaler and Agnes Martin, were notably introverts. If there is a psychic connection, introversion may signal more reserves to carry on than  the  extroversion required of shock performance art. Perhaps Hirst is tired of shocking himself, and is overdue for reinvention.

Ms. Emin, you hopefully have the reserves of introversion. As for myself, I am in my prime, where I intend to remain by periodic reinvention.

Blue Rain. 48×36″, acrylic ink and paint, oil, and charcoal on canvas. The companion piece, Violet Rain, can be found at Hunter Biden’s Art.

As stated in (CNN) ‘That son of a bitch’: New Woodward book reveals candid behind-the-scenes conversations of Biden, Trump, Harris and Putin. Quoting,

The book also contains new details about Trump’s relationship with the Russian president. In 2020, Woodward writes, Trump had “secretly sent Putin a bunch of Abbott Point of Care Covid test machines for his personal use.”

Much has been made of Putin’s extreme fear of infectious disease exposure. He is frequently pictured at one end of his elongated white conference table, his guest at the other, which is the subject of much black humor. Putin is not a neurotic germophobe. The  reason is entirely logical.

Putin has cancer. Since there is no evidence of surgical intervention for a solid tumor it is probably a blood cancer. Blood cancers result in immunosuppression, as a result of both  chemotherapy, and the disease itself, which results in overproduction of nonfunctional, defective white blood cells. The exact species of cell depends upon the particulars of the disease. Quoting from Is Putin Seriously Ill?,,

The absence of facial inflammation suggests the swelling is the side effect of a glucocorticoid  drug, typically prednisone, which induces a well-known suite of side effects known as Cushing’s syndrome. The “moon face” is a hallmark sign, which may be disguised in photography with the absence of frontal views.

Prednisone is a powerful immunosuppressant. Putin may be receiving other chemotheraputic agents as well. All of the small-molecule drugs are powerful immunosuppressants. The result of exposure to COVID could easily be death.

Putin’s use of body doubles, which has been ridiculed as fantasy, is essential to his survival. When he is photographed wading into a crowd without speaking, that is not him.

(CNN) See the treacherous area where rescuers are trying to save survivors comments on the difficulty rescuers have communicating with each other, caused by the destruction of cellular infrastructure.

FEMA relies on First Responder Network Authority (FirstNet), a specialized cellular system, which is hosted by AT&T. So when AT&T cells went down in Asheville, FirstNet went down too.

In a relatively flat region, there would have been a solution. Since Firstnet occupies the low frequency 4G LTE Band 14 (700 MHz), a single portable cell tower can cover a wide area. Not so in Appalachia, where  cell towers have to be carefully  placed to obtain even mediocre coverage.

There is a practical  industry approach to temporary erection of tall antenna structures – the tethered balloon. Even in Appalachia, at a height of 1500 to 3000 feet, a single balloon cell “tower” could offer substantial coverage, perhaps as much as 30% of normal.

The prerequisites:

• Pre-cleared mountain-top helicopter landing pad.
• Pre-constructed anchor point for the tether.
• Cell electronics mounted on a balloon, packaged for helo deployment.
• Diesel generator.
• Provision of backhaul link.
• Firmware integration into FirstNet.

FEMA, get cracking. This is not a very expensive proposition.

If I knew the beans, I wouldn’t spill them. Here are some questions that might be asked of a candidate target:

People: Leadership or military?

Civilian infrastructure, or war making potential?

Essential utility, long lead-time replacement, or status symbol?

More valuable as a hostage to destruction than destroyed?

If the above is the case, can it be nibbled at, to reinforce the threat?

An attritable resource, or a unitary one-off?

Is there a psychological target?  Leadership,  public, or some specific element?

If the psychological target is the leadership, should the physical target be something inconspicuous to the public, thus allowing the leadership to conceal the loss from their base?

Or conversely, embarrass the leadership to their domestic base? Is Iran a candidate for this?

A neat trick:  Retaliation that negates the logic of tit-for-tat.

(CNN) Iranian Mission to the UN: Tehran’s response “has been duly carried out” Quoting,

The Iranian Mission to the United Nations said Tuesday afternoon that Tehran’s response has “been duly carried out,” following a barrage of missiles launched at Israel.

…

There were no injuries following Iran’s attack on Israel on Tuesday, Israel Defense Forces spokesperson Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari has said.

In Iran’s Options for Retaliation, I wrote:

• Retaliation comes in two basic varieties, attributable to Iran, and deniable.
• The scope of attributable is limited by the cost of inevitable retaliation. As an example of the risks, Israel could easily destroy Kharg Island.

The prediction of limited retaliation, well within the capabilities of Israeli air defense, has been provisionally validated.