French Railway Sabotage; Russia Likely Responsible

(CNN) Who was behind the sabotage of France’s railway network? Here’s what we know.

Absent  concrete clues, there is a persuasive argument for Russian responsibility:

  • Known Russian intent to disrupt the Olympics. See (PBS) French authorities detain Russian man accused of plotting to ‘destabilize’ Olympics.
  • Deniability serves Russian goals, failing to provide the adversary with a logical platform for escalation or retaliation.
  • The modus serves the  known Russian tactic of inducement of societal malaise.
  • Synchronization over great distance.
  • Freedom to execute at a time of maximum impact. Less sophisticated  entities lack undetectable loitering capability.
  • Little or no forensic evidence.
  • Conformity with other notable successes in industrial sabotage.

Russia’s covert operations in Western Europe have two distinct tracks:

  • Low budget, amateurish, espionage.
  • High budget, professional industrial sabotage.

The rail attacks exemplify Russian covert expertise.