This is for you meat and potato guys, impatient with meta-thoughts. You’re asking, “Where’s the beef?”

Invasion of Ukraine is no longer likely. In contrast to the previous Russian build-up, this is not a prelude to invasion. It has to do with the history of that part of the world, which includes many massacres and pogroms. It is a visible warning to all Ukranians, including the undeniable Fascist component, not to go in that direction.

In Putin’s ever-shifting calculation, an achievable goal is an Austria-type neutrality. In the Cold War, the Russians actually withdrew from Austria in 1955, because they could not make it work for them economically. The current problem is similar. Although Ukraine has a healthy steel trade with Europe, and exports grain, it cannot pay the Russian gas bill.

Ukraine is going to have a very cold, hard winter. Putin will have a second chance.