Rather than passively wait for the future to be delivered, the predictor attempts to narrow the scope of what can happen. In the process,  one must avoid delusions of grandeur that this can actually be done.   But viewed as probabilities, the future is like the alluvial fan of a river delta, with a flow as small as individual sand grains. Now and then, a flood dislodges a boulder, which we call news.

So the exercise is to indulge and exercise our imaginations. Write imaginary headlines, and be as specific as possible. Embellish with as many details as you like, as, for example,

1. “Maliki flees south to Karbala, holes up in mosque.”

2. “Maliki found hiding in a hole. His first words, ‘I am the president of Iraq.'”

3. “Shiite/Sunni conclave convened by Maliki. Warm words show increasing bonds.”

4. “Maliki deposed in lightning coup. Iran influence seen. New leadership unknown, promises national unity.”

5. “U.S. air raid mistakenly targets Maliki; 9 members of entourage killed.”

6.” Maliki tours Iraq’s largest refinery as production resumes.”

7. “Maliki assassinated by bodyguard.”

8. “Iran Revolutionary Guards increasing presence near Baghdad.”

Keep going.  To the well-oiled imagination, the  list should appear to be endless. If you’re thinking, like Heraclitus, “You never step in the same river twice”, I agree.

Edit: I thought of something. Never edit the imagination. To wit,

9. “ISIS scatters as Iraqi Army advances.” (This is the kind of outcome that has one regretting one’s lack of “ground knowledge.”)