You want to? Here’s your first assignment, which will help you develop your prediction super-powers:

Write a character sketch of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki.  If the thought frees you up, pretend that you’ve gotten to know him as his biographer.  Or that he’s your uncle. You may fill in the personal details with fiction that helps you construct the mental image; whatever works for you. Once you’ve got it down:

1. Use/test the result on Iraq’s current situation. How did his personality contribute?

2. Make an estimate as to how flexible he is, and how quickly he can adapt. Every person has a characteristic rate.

Wondering when or whether the U.S. Cavalry will drop from the skies is not productive, but understanding the main characters will keep you ahead of the pack.