See (2017) Revolution in Venezuela. Quoting,

As noted, the accession of the extremists would be facilitated by rural sanctuary.  But “melting away” of the rebels into the countryside may be hindered by rural majorities of Maduro supporters. Open sources do not illuminate. This exhausts Brinton analogies…

The most defining attribute of a popular revolution is not ideology, but where it forms. The genesis of the French Revolution was in Brittany, but quickly spread to Paris,  from which it radiated nationally. The Russian Revolution began in the cities, followed by an arduous struggle to subdue the countryside.

The stalemate in Burma is a revolutionary situation, with a rural basis. To the extent that the War in Vietnam had elements of revolution, those elements were rural; Saigon was the last to fall.

The variable nature of the American Revolution derives from the 13 quasi states, each of which had their own centers of power, in what we would call, with the exception of Boston, New York, and Philadelphia,  small towns. But this is enough to define it as urban-centric.

To succeed, popular revolution, as distinguished from the palace coup, requires three things: grievance,  communication, and sanctuary.  Sanctuary allows participants in revolution to lead apparently legitimate lives, to communicate without the use of sophisticated technology, to acquire and conceal supplies, and to meet face-to-face for training and moral support, among other things. The lack of sanctuary has doomed prior attempts in Venezuela; the human elements  are too well known to Maduro’s power structure.

This bears on the strategic objective of invasion. If Maduro’s base were urban, it would be simple to make the case that seizure of Caracas “would cause the whole rotten edifice to collapse.” But Maduro’s base is rural, now enhanced by the web of cartels.

A careful assessment is required. If Maduro’s rural base, aided by the cartels, can survive decapitation of Caracas, an insurgency could grow, mimicking Vietnam. The devil is in the details of intelligence work. If done competently, without the political interference that characterized the run-up to the 2003 Iraq invasion, it could:

• Provide assurance that force levels are adequate for a very high chance of complete success.
• Suggest that it could be a tough but ultimately successful slog.
• Warn us to stay out, at the peril of another Vietnam.

If we look at Venezuela through a lens deeply tinted by ideology and politics, we risk an expensive error. Let the intelligence analysts do their work without pressure for encouraging words. Their conclusions will be either golden, or save a lot of gold.

Pay attention to dissenters.

(CNN) How Trump-Zelensky meeting turned acrimonious over demands for territorial concessions. Quoting,

The current estimate is that Trump intends to order an invasion, pending the satisfaction of certain prerequisite conditions.

The widely held opinion is that Trump is bluffing. Bluffing would be ineffective, since Maduro is hostage, as well as patron, of the cartels, with no room to respond to U.S. demands.

The decision is contingent on certain data  from the field not yet supplied to the administration.

The anticipated force is one corps,  an ambiguous term, perhaps 40,000 to 80,000 ground troops. This is likely a point of contention within the administration.  (The Hill) Top admiral’s retirement sets off alarm bells over Caribbean boat strikes. The resignation of Adm. Alvin Holsey, head of U.S. Southern Command, widely thought related to the boat strikes, may have this weightier motivation. In the 1991 Gulf War, U.S. troop levels reached 697,000. The multinational forces of the 2003 invasion of Iraq peaked at 160,000. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld was subsequently criticized for barely adequate force levels, which were supported by covert buy-offs of defending Iraqi forces.

So how could an invasion of Venezuela proceed with such small ground force levels? With these assumptions, which are subject to challenge:

• After seizure of Caracas, organized resistance would cease.
• Caracas is only 7 miles from the sea, though separated from the coast by a mountain range ranging from 2000 to 4000 feet, through which passes a single road. Combined air/ground forces would presumably overcome the advantage of the terrain to the defenders. By contrast, Baghdad is 280 mile straight line from the 2003 zero-line.
• There is a 60 mile lowland alternate route from the east, useful for misdirection.
• The 1989 invasion of Panama involved similar troop levels.
• Defender buyoffs are comprehensive and effective.
• The whole edifice is rotten, historically a risky gamble, but it may be true.
• Current U.S. battle doctrine, full-spectrum dominance, is a force multiplier.
• The presumed magic of “warrior ethos” is real.
• Reversing the ironic observation of  theorist Carl von Clausewitz, the Venezuelans do what we want them to do.

Holsey’s resignation suggests a time line. There is one open source fact that signals  the seriousness of intent. You can figure it out. Get off social media and dig.

The challenge will be to keep it real. Keep workin’ it, through the highs and lows.

***Trump Gets His MoJo Back!!!***

Since Israel and Hamas have some form  of preliminary agreement that will presumably result in release of all hostages, does this mark the end of Hamas as a major force?

For a nontraditional analysis, see Israel, Qatar Strike, which identifies the Gaza tunnels as a constant of the problem, beyond which solutions cannot progress as long as they remain. Those steeped in the liberal art of diplomacy may find this unconvincing. In ( CNN) Fareed Zakaria says this is the ‘million dollar question’ in Gaza deal, Zakaria says that Hamas has nothing left, and Israel holds all the cards.

If Arab terrorism were ruled by Western rationalism, this might be true.  We may have to remind ourselves with every new analysis that this is not the case. But what do we insert in its place? Guidance comes from a remarkable precedent. Since the First Intifada, which spans 1987 to 1993, no Arab terror group or subversive organization has been extirpated, by either Arab countries, israel, or the United States.

Al Qaeda is regrowing. (The Hill, 10/7/25)) US military kills senior al Qaeda-affiliated attack planner.

In spite of the elimination of their charismatic leader and falsification of his revelatory teachings, ISIS still holds territory in Syria and Yemen. It has a growing presence in Afghanistan.

Though less visible than during the brief tenure of Mohamed Morsi as president of Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood remains the transnational subversive stratum of the Arab World, so feared its known exponents are often murdered.

Remember the Black September Organization, which seemingly vanished? In reality, it was a mere pseudo-pod, a cover identity for Fatah, which still exists. The PLO still exists. Hezbollah exists.

Arab countries which give the appearance of freedom from the some or all of these groups have achieved such with mukhabarat terror first brought to the highest pitch by Syria’s Hafez al-Assad. So efficient were the Syrians under the elder Assad, so confident were they of their measures, that Syria could then be entered by any Arab without a passport.

What was done in Syria can be done in Gaza. But by who, and who will sanction torture to prevent a reemergence? No decent international body, no regional coalition could accept the burden and stain of the required severity of repression.

One can sketch the resurrection of Hamas.  A subversive movement becomes a mafiesque second government, which then expels the legitimate authority:

• First, they own the sidewalk.
• Next, a mosque, then a street, then a business, such as trash removal.
• A neighborhood follows, with their services supplanting official.
• Political organization, with a neighborhood nucleus.
• With insertion into minor political roles, state capture begins.
• Assassinations paralyze the legitimate government.
• The banner, of either Hamas or a surrogate, is raised, with demands for power sharing.
• A regional coalition attempts intervention. The Gaza tunnels thwart this.
• The coalition negotiates a face-saving withdrawal.
• The legitimate government flees.

One could argue that Hamas would lack the popular sympathy enjoyed during the 2007 Battle of Gaza , when they kicked Fatah out.

They don’t need it.

(CNN) Trump calls on Israel to ‘stop the bombing of Gaza’ after Hamas agrees to hostage negotiations.

This is merely a tactical move by Hamas, from the realization that the hostages are a liability, not an asset.  The same goes for Israel, for which there is an unresolved physical reality. See Israel, Qatar Strike. Quoting,

If the tunnels were comprehensively eliminated, the problem of Hamas would be reduced to manageable proportions. The tunnels are the constant of the problem.

This brings to mind the death of the famously devious French diplomat, Talleyrand. Upon learning of his rival’s death, the  Austrian diplomat Metternich said,  “I wonder what he meant by that?”

Wonder, indeed. Perhaps A.I. can give us the answer that has eluded since 1838.

***Die Hard***

(CNN) Hegseth orders hundreds of senior military officers to Virginia for highly unusual meeting

This is an invitation to a decapitation strike.

CBW is feasible and deniable. See Weapon of mass destruction.

(CNN) International health agencies hit back against Trump’s claims about Tylenol and autism .

Ruling HHS by hunch, guess, and caprice, Robert Francis Kennedy Jr. has been immensely destructive to the public health establishment. But like the broken clock that shows the correct time twice a day, he may be about to have his moment. Kennedy bases his determination on a paper that does not claim to prove the point. But proof in the biological sciences is a murky concept. When does correlation between a drug and morbidity transition to  the stronger statement of causality?

Quoting (BMC) Evaluation of the evidence on acetaminophen use and neurodevelopmental disorders using the Navigation Guide methodology,

Numerous well-designed studies have indicated that pregnant mothers exposed to acetaminophen have children diagnosed with neurodevelopmental disorders (NDDs), including autism spectrum disorder (ASD) and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), at higher rates than children of pregnant mothers who were not exposed to acetaminophen.

This is a metastudy, which uses Bayesian statistical analysis to combine the results of multiple clinical studies. This methodology can reduce the effect of confounding variables. As a simple though unlikely example, pain could be a confounding variable, the actual cause of ASD, rather than the pain reliever.

A study by Gustavson et al. attempted to remove confounding variables, comparing the rate of ADHD (but not ASD) among sibling with differing prenatal exposure. Quoting,

This study carried out extensive bias analyses and showed that the entire effect disappeared in the sibling-controlled analyses.

The statistical evidence of the constituent clinical studies is weighted depending on the likelihood the results are not from chance; this is called statistical power. Gustavson’s study had a small number of patients,  so it was given small weight. Studies with larger numbers of patients, or less likelihood of confounding relationships, were given more weight.

All of this is so far about probabilities. When does probability become fact? In every field that uses Bayesian statistics, the form of the answer is exactly the same. Every study, no matter how careful or how large, can produce a result that arises purely from chance. That chance is provided by the statistics of the study.

If that chance is smaller than a certain number, we say “proven.” If it is larger, we say “unproven.” But how is the cutoff decided? It is a choice, not a given. In physics, the  number is 0.00006% . In the biological sciences, it is more like 3%. Practicality rules; we are unlikely to do better than 3% in medicine; the confounding variables cannot be further unwound.

There is an obvious problem with 3%. If you have enough random ideas, and test all of them, a certain number will satisfy rigorous studies, and come to be accepted as (false) fact. The scientific method as defined by John Dewey, early in the 20th Century, provides further safeguards against nonsense. It begins with observation and follows with a hypothesis, a possible explanation, followed by a theory which can be tested and proven wrong. If you can’t develop a hypothesis, you stop, while continuing to observe. If it can’t be proven wrong, you’re not doing science. This prevents the random proof of nonsense.

Unfortunately, it is easy to generate a hypothesis relevant to acetaminophen and ASD.  Like NSAIDs, this drug inhibits inflammation. Unlike NSAIDs, it also acts directly on the brain, raising the threshold for a neuron to fire.  Quoting (Wikipedia) Paracetamol,

In 2018, Suemaru et al. found that, in mice, paracetamol exerts an anticonvulsant effect by activation of the TRPV1 receptors[121] and a decrease in neuronal excitability by hyperpolarization of neurons.

In the prenatal brain, this could interfere with Hebbian learning. See Hebb’s Rule Applies During Early Brain Development, With Subcellular Precision. Hebbian learning is likely one way the brain self-organizes before birth, by dictating the pruning, by apoptosis, of excess neurons. 

ASD children are born with an excess of neurons in certain regions.  A hypothesis:

The increased neuron firing threshold, caused by acetaminophen, inhibits pruning associated with prenatal Hebbian learning, leading to the excess of neurons associated with ASD.

Robert Kennedy’s war on the scientific establishment is abhorrent. But he may yet have his day,  reminding us that knowledge does not guarantee correctness, and bureaucracy can blunt intellect.

This has happened before, when a more dubious drug came under journalistic scrutiny. The then-issues can be repurposed now; see (CNN) Trump is wrong… About Hydroxychloroquine Studies…Facts. Part 1.

For perspective, see (CNN, NYT) Navy pilots speak out on UFO sightings.

(ABC) Congressman shows never-before-seen video at military UFO hearing. In this video, a Hellfire missile is alleged to have been deflected by a UAP resembling the “tic-tacs” of previous reports.

The current assessment follows, informed by valuable data from the intercept:

The target was a miniature hybrid airship of Chinese origin.

The shell is fabric stretched over a tensegrity frame.

In cutting edge application, the deformable tensegrity shell is collapsible and inflatable for trans-medium underwater deployment, and modifiable in flight to vary  the tradeoff of aerodynamics with endurance.

The impact tore the fabric of the tensegrity shell, with jagged edges visible even in low resolution IR. The drone was badly damaged, spinning out of control from angular momentum imparted by the Hellfire. If it continued to fly, it would be due to compensations by the heavier-than-air component.

The target did not “continue on its way”,  because it was almost stationary. The illusion of movement is provided by the change in perspective of the gimbal-mounted tracking sensor of the MQ-9 Reaper, resulting from the velocity of the Reaper, not the target.

The  false appearance that the Hellfire was deflected was produced by loss of laser lock when the Hellfire punctured the target, briefly enveloping the laser sensor in fabric. The Hellfire transitioned from the laser lock program to the inertial backup program, causing a control response that superficially resembled deflection.

The video is a teaching moment for adversaries who wish to jam the Hellfire guidance system, which explains why the video was leaked without accompanying engineering data.

The control of a deformable tensegrity is cutting edge technology, involving nonlinear controls and recently, neural networks. A hybrid buoyancy design, with extended endurance compared to pure heavier-than-air designs, is particularly valuable to a power seeking to extend its reach. See  (China) Soft Multicopter Control using Neural Dynamics Identification and (U.S.) Morphing-Enabled Path Planning for Flying Tensegrity Robots as a Semidefinite Program.

Since DoD, for good reason, does not provide Congress with technical data and specialist briefers, the UAP brouhaha will remain fertile ground for those who, intentionally or not, misrepresent these events to an audience utterly incapable of informed judgement.

One of the most enduring myths, endlessly exploited by extraterrestrial advocates, is that an observer can even crudely estimate the altitude and velocity of an unfamiliar object. No one, even a pilot with thousands of hours, can do this without supplementary, non-optical assumptions. For example, you might be able to estimate the distance of an airliner, because you know you are looking at an airliner. When a UAP offers no assumptions of how big it is, this becomes impossible — for everyone.

This is what you’re up against:

Optical illusion

(CNN) FBI releases images of person of interest in Charlie Kirk’s fatal shooting. Quoting,

The weapon is a “high-powered, bolt action rifle” that was “recovered in a wooded area where the shooter had fled,” Bohls said at a news conference.

Historically, bolt action rifles have had the greatest potential accuracy, especially when subjected to a refinement  called “accurizing.” Because of the low rate of fire, the bolt action rifle has not been the choice of mass shooters and has not been the subject of illicit manufacture.

An accurized bolt action rifle is the U.S. Army choice of sniper rifle designs. It remains popular in competitive target shooting.  Considerable practice is required to achieve a moderate rate of fire. This strongly implies that the shooter is likely to have had an association with a gun club or sporting team.