Iran Protests; Is Revolution Nigh?

No, but the possibility draws closer. If there are serious revolutionary cabals in Iran, with access to resources that can be diverted or co-opted, they wisely remain hidden pending a significant, anticipated, unavoidable event, the passing of Khameini. With that strainer in place, the eventful, public demonstrations and violence are composed of individuals and groups that do not have those resources.

I have referred to Crane Brinton’s The Anatomy of Revolution twice before. The dynamics of the 1979 overthrow of the Shah are strikingly similar to the French Revolution, though the issues of religion, and estates were ironically opposite.  The French tried to abolish religion; the 1979 revolution established it. The French abolished the estates; 1979 established new ones. It would be natural to inquire if a new Iranian revolution could simply run in reverse. But while the present is now discredited, the pre-1979 past remains discredited.

Quoting from Iran and The Anatomy of Revolution,

Brinton’s characterization of the  prodromal phase of revolution implies forbidden transition, in the absence of:

      • A period of  increasing prosperity, followed by sudden reversal. Not in Iran, where the economy has gone from bad to worse.
      • Incompetent use of power. Brinton’s meaning is power against internal opponents. In 1979,  the Shah met this criteria, killing just enough people to irritate the rest. Not so under Khamenei, whose government is liberal with torture and death.
      • Involvement of the masses with Brinton’s stereotypical grievances. A weak, qualified yes. Urban and rural protestors are dissatisfied for different reasons; urban protests are cultural, while the rural poor want jobs. There is no evidence of coordination between these groups.

The Bazaar has a Brinton analogy as an economic barometer; much has been made of the protests of the Bazaar. But in 1979, the Bazaaris were the nexus of Iran’s economy. Today, they are the equivalent of a huge shopping mall. The analogy is technically blocked by the absence of previous prosperity, but let it slide.

Brinton’s path remains blocked by the competence of the regime at repression. If the Shah, who was well known for the terrors of SAVAK, was as enthusiastic with machine guns in the streets, the result could have been quite different.

The masses are more broadly involved, but there is a missing element. They know what they don’t want. They can’t articulate the achievable replacement. Economic demands are unreachable without repealing the core hostilities of the state. The demand for regime change is concrete, but what comes after? Concrete demands lack the directional arrow of an ideology. Humans have a weakness for ideology, even when it’s a pack of lies. None of Iran’s problems, save hijab, are immediately solvable. Ideology provides the unity and patience for a future that may never come. Khomeini was so proud of his, he offered it to Gorbachev.

Khomeini’s contribution was Velayat-e faqih, the “guardianship of the Islamic jurist”, the doctrine of Iran’s theocracy. Prior, the role of clerics in Iran was similar to many other countries, serving as advisors and influencers. How could a society, formerly a sleepy backwater and playground of the Great Powers, suddenly develop one of the most complex governmental forms of modern times?

In every country, there is a primary currency of influence. In the U.S., financial prominence is strongly associated with social influence. In other countries, it could be crime, a warlord culture,  the notion of cultural aristocracy, “influencers”, how many books you’ve written, or simply entrenched domination of system. Post the 1979 revolution, influence in Iran follows, more than anything else, academic culture. Quoting from Iran, Foreign Policy, and Positivism,

In the holy city of Qom, clerics churn out commentary, the quantity, aesthetic quality, and popularity of which define the reputation and power of an ayatollah and his school. The anatomy of the state, the veins through which the power flows, and the currency of  legitimate rule are different from any other state in the world today. It is a hybridization of Plato’s Republic (compare Plato’s ruling “guardians” with Iran’s Guardian Council)  with a state structure that until 2005 occasioned significant expression of secular ideas.

In the West, we are accustomed to simple hierarchies of power, structured like pyramids, narrowing to a single individual at the top. Iran has multiple hierarchies which, at the top, vie for legitimacy in religious publications, selected public disclosure, and popularity. How these balance to modulate the exercise of power, and legitimacy of succession, are known only by the result.

This culture is peculiar to Shia Islam.  Due to the isolation of  the Arabian peninsula, Sunni Islam largely froze after the 11th century. When Islam arrived in Persia In the 9th to 11th centuries, it did not displace Persian culture; it hybridized it. The resulting amalgam, requiring elasticity, supported pluralistic interpretation and the famous institutional hypocrisy. Every Shia is required to choose a personal teacher, his source of emulation; the choice is his. The teachers emanate from the clerics of Qom. In the recent past, this has supported diversity of viewpoint, hidden from the Western observer by animosity to the West.

So the loud cries of the protestors lack influencers, or even any form of politics; subconsciously, they expect “literate” voices to step up, but none have appeared. From 1979, until the end of the Presidency of Muhammad Khatami in 2005, there was a visible diversity among the clerics of Qom, spanning the range from oppressive to shockingly liberal. Liberal clerics enjoyed some protection from severe sanction. After Khatami, the liberal elements faded from view. But might they still exist, in occult form? Shia Islam is, after all, based on the occult 12th Imam, Muhammad al-Mahdi, the Shia version of the saviour.

A hint that they might: (Iranwire) Qom Without Senior Clerics Present.  Quoting,

Ali Khamenei, Iran’s Supreme Leader, met with residents of Qom without the presence or cooperation of senior Shiite religious authorities…A reliable source said: “Normally, Shiite clerics are invited to such meetings, but this session was held very quickly and the clerics did not cooperate.”

The possibilities:

  • They had prior engagements.
  • A lack of desire to sacrifice themselves as front-men for an insoluble problem. Let Khameini do it; he’s near the end anyway.
  • Genuine dissatisfaction with the extremes of the Khameini’s version of  theocracy. There are unsubstantiated claims that his removal was considered; possible, in theory, by the Assembly of Experts.
  • Plotting in progress.

The abandonment of Velayat-e faqih is as likely as the repeal of Marbury vs. Madison. But the absence of the clerics, mirrored in the non-appearances in other branches of iran’s hydra-headed government, analogizes with Brinton’s incompetent use of force. We speculate about a process somewhat different from Brinton’s examples.

It centers on the reluctance of anyone, save the soon-to-be kaput Khameini, to be front-man for this train wreck. A stair-step descent from orthodoxy follows, devolving on  successive front-men, tending towards increasingly liberal, with Velayat-e faqih fading into the background, like a ceremonial monarchy.

Nobody wants to explain thirst for water to the masses. The stasis, when it occurs, will be determined by the desiccation of Iran. Iran needs water projects that can only be funded by a very healthy economy.

ICE Minneapolis Shooting; 7 Seconds and Kurosawa’s Rashomon; Midterm Elections

(CNN) Ex-FBI agent breaks down Minnesota shooting video

What actually happened? When an action is described by contradictory witnesses, the truth can be unknowable. Did Renee Good intend to strike an ICE officer, or was she simply maneuvering around the open door of another vehicle?  This is the Rashomon effect. Quoting Wikipedia,

The Rashomon effect describes how parties describe an event in a different and contradictory manner, which reflects their subjective interpretation and self-interested advocacy, rather than an objective truth. The Rashomon effect is evident when the event is the outcome of litigation. One should not be surprised when both parties claim to have won the case.

Since Renee Good was shot, viewers with the luxury of time have been replaying the videos. It should come as no surprise if the officer who fired did not, in real time of 7 seconds, understand what was happening. Instinct, combined with lack of time, is a bad combination.

The third, final head shot through the driver’s window is the shocker, since the car was no longer in a position where it could strike the officer. The officer’s actions are probably allowed by qualified immunity. Nevertheless, if we put the whole tragedy in a box,  situation, offender, and officers, possible discretionary actions and restraints could have prevented the fatal outcome. The officer struck by the vehicle could have re-positioned to his right. If Good’s intentions were to run the officer over, her front wheels would have turned left, but they did not. Per Rashomon, witnesses have different conclusions about both action and intent.

While an adult citizen should comply with a lawful command of an LEO, many do not, resisting even though they may have committed no crime, or a minor one. Though Renee Good may have committed obstruction, she was not, at the time her car blocked the street, a criminal in the social sense, or deserving of capital punishment.

(YouTube) Sergeant Curtis is a working  police officer unafraid to critique botched police work. Officer Kills Innocent Man After He Calls 911  is a teaching example. Quoting,

On June 10, 2022, 22-Year-Old Christian Glass called 911 claiming his vehicle had gotten stuck on the side of the road, and he needed help. In his 25 minute call with dispatchers, he mentioned that he was recovering from a depression, and that he was scared of being hunted by “skinwalkers” if left alone.

Glass failed to comply with lawful orders and possessed a knife which he would not surrender. The responding officers, losing  focus, became committed to removing him from the vehicle, which resulted in gunshots fatal to Glass. Quoting Curtis, “The officer who fired the fatal round is in prison.”

If you watch enough Youtube crime videos, you may reach the conclusion that there are three types of police work: right, wrong, and ethical. There was no ethical reason for the third, final shot. There may have been an excuse. You decide.

Politics has surrendered to extremes:

  • Whoever died at the hands of law enforcement deserved to die.

or

  • Law enforcement is no more than a tool of political repression.

The third alternative, ethical police work, is kept alive by officers like Sergeant Curtis.

For Republicans. Now let’s abandon any pretense of morality, and talk identity politics. The killing of an unarmed white woman with no criminal record is an extraordinary event. ICE, by causing the death of a white woman, has created a martyr. Renee Good was not simply white. Except for her strong feelings about ICE, she probably lived a normal, centered life that many Americans identify with. In a few years, demographers may supersede  “white” with “centrist” as a more meaningful term for the people you know and live nearby. Republicans can probably live down one mistake like this. Three becomes iffy, ten impossible. Martyrs could swing the midterms. 

What is the chance of more martyrs? The planned surge of ICE recruitment will inevitably pull in individuals lacking fine judgment, of when to use lethal force, and when to get out of the way. The police of our communities are not  cowboy gunslingers. Excepting the rarest occasions, they don’t shoot first and ask questions later. They retreat, regroup, strategize, and execute.

Quoting Note to President Trump re Guard and Marine ,

A policeman is not trained to storm an objective requiring lethal force from the get-go. The training of a cop involves a very careful sequence of escalation: request,  demand, compel. Execution of this template,  switching almost instantaneously to deadly force according to the regulations of a department, is the hallmark of superior training and ability.  The ability to persuade a suspect to comply with minimum force, or any force at all, is far more complex than the use of deadly force. This is what makes the career of law enforcement rewarding. It maintains the consent of the governed, without which civil government loses all meaning. A cop practices his skills every day.

Recommendation. You don’t have to go slow, just add some care, and let up on the pedal a little bit.

***Rashomon***

OT: A Guide to Intel9 Art, Humor, Satire, and the Poignant; Att Larry Gagosian

Intel9 serves up open source intelligence, which can be depressing as a steady diet. Follow the links if you’d like to take a break from that. If I had a choice of a life, it might be that of S.I. Newhouse, a tiny bit of which finds its way into this blog.

Some paintings have been reserved for separate exhibit.

Venezuela Strategy, Observations

The ball  is still in play, so this is preliminary.

The team which has executed Venezuela strategy appears to have a rare historical sense relating to the errors of the 2003 invasion of Iraq. The architects of the post-conflict intervention were collectively known as the “neoconservatives”. Following military conquest, this group attempted a complete reconstruction of Iraq along democratic lines, based on preconceptions devoid of cultural relevance. The first, immediately controversial step was “de-Ba’athification“, removal from civil service eligibility of anyone, primarily Sunnis, associated with  the old regime. This had the effects of removing virtually all experienced civil servants, and provoking the enmity of the Sunni minority, who actually thought they were the majority.  Since the Sunnis had been in control of the state, the vacuum devolved into multi-polar conflict: Sunnis and Shias with each other, and against the U.S.

This happened despite a U.S. occupation that was regarded favorably by a significant percentage of the population. No matter how beneficent U.S. intentions in Venezuela may be, the wrong choices of collaboration could result in civil war. Each general or military clique has potential of a warlord domain.

This is the likely basis of Trump’s choice to interface with Delcy Rodríguez, a committed leftist, rather than conservative opposition leader Maria Corina Machado. This is not regime change. If we subtract the potentially damaging imperialist rhetoric, it becomes possible to offer Venezuela a win-win:

  • Cessation of anti-American ideological posturing and alignments.
  • A favorable environment for U.S. investment.
  • Recognition of U.S. security interests.
  • A secure cash cow, based on oil revenues,  for the left to finance their social agenda.
  • Recognition by the U.S. of the validity of domestic left-leaning social policies.

Will legitimate democracy be an eventual U.S. goal? This depends upon the degree to which the U.S. chooses to risk dismantling or weakening the existing power structure.

This historical sense is worthy of note. Henry Kissinger would have appreciated the nuances.

 

(CNN) Trump says US military struck ISIS terrorists in Nigeria; the Second Scramble for Africa

(CNN) Trump says US military struck ISIS terrorists in Nigeria. Quoting,

Nigerian Information Minister Mohammed Idris said Friday that the strikes were carried out in the Bauni forest of the Tangaza area against two major ISIS enclaves, which he said were being used as assembly and staging grounds to plan “large-scale terrorist attacks” in Nigeria.

Sixteen GPS-guided precision munitions were launched using Reaper drones, the information minister added, claiming the targets were “successfully” neutralized.

This is an  appropriate, sustainable response. Lacking explanation is the article video, which shows the launch of a BGM-109C Tomahawk Land Attack Missile. This is an expensive weapon, capable of some structural penetration, which suggests there was a bunker complex.

See U.S. Troops to Nigeria? Quoting,

A geographically adjacent threat, al-Shabaab, has the potential for linkage through a desire to establish jihadist belts in territories that adjoin Nigeria at the savanna Sahel, the  semi-arid belt that girds Africa just south of the Sahara. This is already in play from Somalia in the east, through Mali and the other the Francophone states that recently expelled French influence.

The limited reach implied by the indigenous Somali roots of al-Shabaab gave ISIS a fluid opening in  territory on the Niger border, without competition from a group of comparable reach.  This suggests a dictum:  The spread of terror is more opportunistic than ideological. When the tip of the ISIS spear reached Nigeria, action became imperative.  Yet action goes against the MAGA grain of isolationism. It is likely that Trump plays the Christian angle to rally his base for an exception. Requirements for exceptions will continue, as the world becomes more interdependent for minerals.

The  last cycle of European colonialism, the Scramble for Africa, began in the late 19th century, lasting  until WWI. At peak, 90% of Africa was under the rule of European powers. In that day, the  ultimate potential of a nation was thought to be land area; the remedy for the constricted European powers was African land, labor,  and biosphere.

For most of history, strategic minerals were so few, they have been used as markers of human development.  While the advent of iron and steel was marked by numerous additions to the original copper, tin, and zinc, the year 1882 marks the the dawn of modern materials science with the discovery of manganese steel. 80% of world reserves of manganese are in South Africa. But the first strategic mineral with remarkable concentration was diamond.  Tools impregnated with industrial diamond, sourced from Kimberly, South Africa beginning 1872, were the only practical way of machining manganese steel. Today, the development of synthetic diamonds has rendered industrial dependence on natural diamonds minimal.

The early 20th century saw the addition of nickel, chromium, molybdenum, vanadium, tungsten, and, for the finest tool steels,  cobalt. The major supplier of cobalt is Congo. The dominant supplier of chromium is South Africa.

The development of microelectronics made tantalum strategic. Any circuit board containing VLSI chips has components known as tantalum capacitors in close proximity to those chips. Alternatives are possible, but your cellphone might lock up more frequently. Tantalum is a conflict mineral, sourced from Congo.

A large part of the minerals problem involves a new Scramble for Africa, one of alliances, not domination, in which Russia and China have a head start. Russia exports tactical hard power with mercenaries; China favors soft.  Success will require more adroitness than typical of U.S.  foreign policy. We should take a good look at why France was thrown out of Francophone Africa. An alternative to the “Christian persecution” label, so necessary in domestic engagement with MAGA, is vital.

The necessity of a new Scramble is amplified by an inconvenient fact.  Apart from Africa, China possesses strategic near-monopolies of most strategic minerals connected with semiconductors and renewable energy. This is not the time to eliminate DoD Africa Command; it must be reinforced.

These applications were discovered mostly in the 60’s,  as semiconductor dopants and rare earth magnets. China has a near-monopoly of these,  and lithium. It appears that China has a virtual lock on all the components of renewable energy required for storage, efficient conversion from electrical to mechanical, and back. But in this case, there is a less efficient, but sustainable alternative to aggressive foreign policy. Efficient electric motors, competitive with those using rare earths, have been designed. Alternative battery chemistries are under intensive development.

Credit is due the Trump and Biden administrations for recognition that, in a multi polar world, the assumption of a stable international system, with market-based access to raw materials, cannot be relied upon. There does seem to have been some OJT (on-the-job-training) on the limits of U.S. power. It has been frequently said that the U.S. has the unique ability to wage economic warfare. This tactic suffered its first defeat with China. A few years ago, the conventional wisdom was that China would not play the rare-earth card against U.S. tariffs.  That assumption was wrong.

The consequences are immediate and severe. Without stable supplies of strategic minerals, the current policy of military overmatch is not viable. Without, our accustomed standard of living is not possible. This dilemma has not yet entered the political discourse of either party. Even with a president who understands this, his MAGA base is far from comprehension. How do you sell an active foreign policy when you ran as an isolationist?

The rarest mineral right now is spadeium. Let’s call a spade a spade.

 

Penn Station Renovation; New Plan Saves Big Money, for Less Than $1B

For a previous kvetch, see Good Will for Amtrak — Not!.

Some decades ago, I became an irregular member of the Manhattan “Bridge and Tunnel Crowd”, making my way into Manhattan via New Jersey Transit to Penn Station, where I usually land on the southern-most platforms. Some of the stairs ascend directly to the level  which provides street level access, while others rise to an intermediate level confusingly named the “exit concourse”; others terminate in a stepped depression that came  with the new NJT concourse.

It was confusing at first, but I quickly learned what I need to know, except for the occasional need to review  the arrangements of certain elevators that require switching cars to get all the way down to track level. Nevertheless, in  NJT customer surveys, I always give  NY Penn,  my first destination of the day, high marks.

My interest in architecture, the first cousin of public art, goes beyond the trivial. I read books about it. I am susceptible to the influence of the best of it, which elevates the spirit of public space without possession of that space. But the best of utility is seldom to be found, for architecture is a narcissistic endeavor. It is almost unheard of for a large project to be executed by an end-user of that space. All too often, utility is displaced by aspiration to mystical greatness, absent local participation.  Although members of the public have given sound-bite opinions, there does not appear to be a portal for public opinion. I have never received a solicitation, even though I am a regular participant in NJT surveys. This suggests a fact of monumental architecture: It is the province of people who “know  better.”

One block west of Penn Station, there is a monument to this kind of process error, Moynihan Train Hall. With enough floor space for a county fair, it is  severely underutilized. No picture will ever show a crowd. Objective measurements avail from the tiny allotment of public seating, and the men’s public restroom, with a handful of little used urinals, compared to the massive complex in the upper concourse of the main station.

Why has the utilitarian potential of this monumental structure been so strangely truncated? A work of architecture that is also a public facility requires policing of public order, and, these days, prevention of terrorism. With the exception of the new World Trade Center, I have never seen an  architect’s vision of a public monument address this at the level of practice. And yet it must be, to allow reasonable safety of passenger transit. Hence the virtual absence of seating. In fact, for Penn Station as a whole, compared to available floor space, there is a virtual absence of seating.

All this sumptuous nothing entails an additional block walk from the 7th Avenue subway and Herald Square. Can an architect’s vision be put on trial for tired feet? In 1989, Richard Serra’s sculpture,Tilted Arc, installed in Foley Square, was, and lost. It got in the way of workers getting their lunch. Hold that thought; it will be the basis of a food-based metric.

New Jersey Transit runs 340 trains per day. Each train has close to 1000 seats. Yet the NJT waiting area in the NJT-exclusive area of the station has about 60 backless seats made of grey steel, apparently sourced from a prison furniture supplier. They are indestructible, and painfully cold in winter, even in the heated space. The adjacent restroom has three urinals, two of which were installed at the wrong height. There is a good reason for all of this. NJT doesn’t want to pay for the constant LEO presence required to keep better seats available for legitimate commuters. The urinals are some kind of a fitness test.

What about the claim that the station layout impedes debarkation/embarkation? Most platforms are equipped with both stairs and escalators. When a NJT train is on the platform for debarkation, it seems to be  policy that the escalators cannot be used; they move in the down direction, disabling their use even as additional stairs. As with security, there is a likely reason. In a shared facility, who indemnifies who? A few years back, an elderly woman was strangled to death when her scarf got caught in the hand rail.

So rather than pay for insurance, which would require close attention to the emergency stop button, NJT passengers are required to climb two flights of stairs to the main concourse. How can a new station fix this artificial shortage of stairs?

They say we need skylights to  lift our spirits; the narrow view of a usually cloudy sky might compare favorably to Colorado’s Supermax. A cheap cup of coffee would be more appreciated. TV news stories are suspiciously thin;  one interviewed a single individual, probably all they could find.  Opinion polls mistake “Sure, it would be nice” for “I’ll pay for it.” So we have to find out how the public really feels about it.

My solution is a food-based metric, the Coffee Poll, with these questions:

  • Would you trade a new Penn Station for a free Welcome to the Apple Cafe Americano?
  • How about a latte with aspartame on the side?
  • Latte with an extra shot of espresso and a pump of caramel syrup?
  • Three shots over ice in a grande cup with five pumps of caramel syrup?
  • A macchiato the way you like it?
  • Venti caramel frappe?
  • Frappe with white chocolate and an extra shot?

How sweet it is. Of  course, giving everyone a frappe could easily cost $20B, three times the price  of a new station with overpriced food courts. But somewhere in this list, there lies fungible reason. This survey will doubtless confirm that people don’t care about the height of the ceiling; they want creature comforts. It’s time to roll out my plan, which saves $6B:

  • $100M a year to pay three guys $30M a year to watch the escalators.
  • $100M a year for comfy, cat-themed seat cushions.
  • Free lattes for all, free frapps for frequent travelers.
  • $100M to lower the urinals.
  • $100M to buy 10 additional tables for those who prefer to do something while waiting for their trains. These can be Walmart folding banquettes, marked up 100,000%, adorned with “I ❤️NY” stickers.
  • $100M to replace expensive atrium skylights with off-brand LCDs sourced on Canal Street, connected to a Lenovo PC running AI, that will make you happier than you have a right to be.

I’ve renovated the experience of Penn Station for under a billion. I’ll watch the escalator buttons.

 

 

 

 

New Art Series; Traces of the Past; Painting the Ediacaran Period; Att: Larry Gagosian

The Ediacaran Past; Oil on Panel (click to enlarge)

I’ve  recently explored painting inspired by fossil traces of remote geologic periods. The first three of this series cover these ancient spans:

Ediacaran; 635–538.8 Mya, during which life forms arose that have no obvious connection with the evolutionary tree that followed.

 Cambrian, 538.8 Mya – 486.85 Mya, during which complex life forms evolved, spurred by a biological “arms race”, to eat rather than be eaten.

Quaternary, 2 .6 Mya to present, during which Man took over the planet, with apparent intent to run it into the ground.

This is abstraction inspired by fact, informed by long hours of curiosity with  the strange visualizations provided by the optical microscope of rock samples, in  this case a Leitz Orthoplan equipped with epi-illumination.

If you stare long enough, you may find representations of homo in all the paintings, justified as the viewpoint presence. Remember that all that ever was lies under our feet; our borrowed atoms the substance of an unknown future.

 

 

Venezuela turns Clausewitz on it’s head; Politics is nothing but the continuation of war with other means

The evolution of this nascent conflict is a little odd. Though in decline, classical war is preceded by the development of pretext, with complaints that may be true though frequently false, followed by negotiations that seek to convince some audience of the reasonableness of the plaintiff, followed or accompanied by mobilization, and finally, the  casus belli that leads directly to hostilities.

This time, Clausewitz does a headstand: Politics is nothing but the continuation of war with other means, at least now, with Venezuela. (For reference, Clausewitz actually wrote (Springer  Nature Link) War is nothing but the continuation of policy with other means’ (Clausewitz, 1993:77).

What some might have hoped would be a splendid little war looks now more like an old fashioned election, with the likker and money flowing freely. Trump wants to buy out the Bolivarian generals, but as they have been bought by the cartels, they have to be bought again. And as the cartels may actually have greater resources for that kind of disbursement than the  CIA,  so the Trump team’s offer must be two-edged, and one that they can’t refuse: Take a few million with a clear path to a pardon, or a one-way bus ticket to CECOT or Supermax.

This is likely why the (NBC) pardoning of former Honduras President Juan Orlando Hernández  has a specific audience,  as does the show of military hardware. Meanwhile, Maduro vanished for a while, probably on an old-fashioned stump tour for the same constituency.

With the scrutiny of Senate and House Armed Services committees of the “double-tap” boat strike, and the absence of actual U.S. mobilization, Maduro  senses weakness. This highlights an ageless truth about bluffing. The little guy can get away with it, unless the big guy has an institutionalized appetite for war. Still, we cannot discount the possibility that he will wake up with a horse in his bed.

Does Maduro breed horses?

***An offer he can’t refuse***

 

 

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