Not likely. 

You’re entitled to seek inner peace.

And, maybe, you will find it.

***One day, we may get it right***

(CNN) Trump says US military struck ISIS terrorists in Nigeria. Quoting,

Nigerian Information Minister Mohammed Idris said Friday that the strikes were carried out in the Bauni forest of the Tangaza area against two major ISIS enclaves, which he said were being used as assembly and staging grounds to plan “large-scale terrorist attacks” in Nigeria.

Sixteen GPS-guided precision munitions were launched using Reaper drones, the information minister added, claiming the targets were “successfully” neutralized.

This is an  appropriate, sustainable response. Lacking explanation is the article video, which shows the launch of a BGM-109C Tomahawk Land Attack Missile. This is an expensive weapon, capable of some structural penetration, which suggests there was a bunker complex.

See U.S. Troops to Nigeria? Quoting,

A geographically adjacent threat, al-Shabaab, has the potential for linkage through a desire to establish jihadist belts in territories that adjoin Nigeria at the savanna Sahel, the  semi-arid belt that girds Africa just south of the Sahara. This is already in play from Somalia in the east, through Mali and the other the Francophone states that recently expelled French influence.

The limited reach implied by the indigenous Somali roots of al-Shabaab gave ISIS a fluid opening in  territory on the Niger border, without competition from a group of comparable reach.  This suggests a dictum:  The spread of terror is more opportunistic than ideological. When the tip of the ISIS spear reached Nigeria, action became imperative.  Yet action goes against the MAGA grain of isolationism. It is likely that Trump plays the Christian angle to rally his base for an exception. Requirements for exceptions will continue, as the world becomes more interdependent for minerals.

The  last cycle of European colonialism, the Scramble for Africa, began in the late 19th century, lasting  until WWI. At peak, 90% of Africa was under the rule of European powers. In that day, the  ultimate potential of a nation was thought to be land area; the remedy for the constricted European powers was African land, labor,  and biosphere.

For most of history, strategic minerals were so few, they have been used as markers of human development.  While the advent of iron and steel was marked by numerous additions to the original copper, tin, and zinc, the year 1882 marks the the dawn of modern materials science with the discovery of manganese steel. 80% of world reserves of manganese are in South Africa. But the first strategic mineral with remarkable concentration was diamond.  Tools impregnated with industrial diamond, sourced from Kimberly, South Africa beginning 1872, were the only practical way of machining manganese steel. Today, the development of synthetic diamonds has rendered industrial dependence on natural diamonds minimal.

The early 20th century saw the addition of nickel, chromium, molybdenum, vanadium, tungsten, and, for the finest tool steels,  cobalt. The major supplier of cobalt is Congo. The dominant supplier of chromium is South Africa.

The development of microelectronics made tantalum strategic. Any circuit board containing VLSI chips has components known as tantalum capacitors in close proximity to those chips. Alternatives are possible, but your cellphone might lock up more frequently. Tantalum is a conflict mineral, sourced from Congo.

A large part of the minerals problem involves a new Scramble for Africa, one of alliances, not domination, in which Russia and China have a head start. Russia exports tactical hard power with mercenaries; China favors soft.  Success will require more adroitness than typical of U.S.  foreign policy. We should take a good look at why France was thrown out of Francophone Africa. An alternative to the “Christian persecution” label, so necessary in domestic engagement with MAGA, is vital.

The necessity of a new Scramble is amplified by an inconvenient fact.  Apart from Africa, China possesses strategic near-monopolies of most strategic minerals connected with semiconductors and renewable energy. This is not the time to eliminate DoD Africa Command; it must be reinforced.

These applications were discovered mostly in the 60’s,  as semiconductor dopants and rare earth magnets. China has a near-monopoly of these,  and lithium. It appears that China has a virtual lock on all the components of renewable energy required for storage, efficient conversion from electrical to mechanical, and back. But in this case, there is a less efficient, but sustainable alternative to aggressive foreign policy. Efficient electric motors, competitive with those using rare earths, have been designed. Alternative battery chemistries are under intensive development.

Credit is due the Trump and Biden administrations for recognition that, in a multi polar world, the assumption of a stable international system, with market-based access to raw materials, cannot be relied upon. There does seem to have been some OJT (on-the-job-training) on the limits of U.S. power. It has been frequently said that the U.S. has the unique ability to wage economic warfare. This tactic suffered its first defeat with China. A few years ago, the conventional wisdom was that China would not play the rare-earth card against U.S. tariffs.  That assumption was wrong.

The consequences are immediate and severe. Without stable supplies of strategic minerals, the current policy of military overmatch is not viable. Without, our accustomed standard of living is not possible. This dilemma has not yet entered the political discourse of either party. Even with a president who understands this, his MAGA base is far from comprehension. How do you sell an active foreign policy when you ran as an isolationist?

The rarest mineral right now is spadeium. Let’s call a spade a spade.

For a previous kvetch, see Good Will for Amtrak — Not!.

Some decades ago, I became an irregular member of the Manhattan “Bridge and Tunnel Crowd”, making my way into Manhattan via New Jersey Transit to Penn Station, where I usually land on the southern-most platforms. Some of the stairs ascend directly to the level  which provides street level access, while others rise to an intermediate level confusingly named the “exit concourse”; others terminate in a stepped depression that came  with the new NJT concourse.

It was confusing at first, but I quickly learned what I need to know, except for the occasional need to review  the arrangements of certain elevators that require switching cars to get all the way down to track level. Nevertheless, in  NJT customer surveys, I always give  NY Penn,  my first destination of the day, high marks.

My interest in architecture, the first cousin of public art, goes beyond the trivial. I read books about it. I am susceptible to the influence of the best of it, which elevates the spirit of public space without possession of that space. But the best of utility is seldom to be found, for architecture is a narcissistic endeavor. It is almost unheard of for a large project to be executed by an end-user of that space. All too often, utility is displaced by aspiration to mystical greatness, absent local participation.  Although members of the public have given sound-bite opinions, there does not appear to be a portal for public opinion. I have never received a solicitation, even though I am a regular participant in NJT surveys. This suggests a fact of monumental architecture: It is the province of people who “know  better.”

One block west of Penn Station, there is a monument to this kind of process error, Moynihan Train Hall. With enough floor space for a county fair, it is  severely underutilized. No picture will ever show a crowd. Objective measurements avail from the tiny allotment of public seating, and the men’s public restroom, with a handful of little used urinals, compared to the massive complex in the upper concourse of the main station.

Why has the utilitarian potential of this monumental structure been so strangely truncated? A work of architecture that is also a public facility requires policing of public order, and, these days, prevention of terrorism. With the exception of the new World Trade Center, I have never seen an  architect’s vision of a public monument address this at the level of practice. And yet it must be, to allow reasonable safety of passenger transit. Hence the virtual absence of seating. In fact, for Penn Station as a whole, compared to available floor space, there is a virtual absence of seating.

All this sumptuous nothing entails an additional block walk from the 7th Avenue subway and Herald Square. Can an architect’s vision be put on trial for tired feet? In 1989, Richard Serra’s sculpture,Tilted Arc, installed in Foley Square, was, and lost. It got in the way of workers getting their lunch. Hold that thought; it will be the basis of a food-based metric.

New Jersey Transit runs 340 trains per day. Each train has close to 1000 seats. Yet the NJT waiting area in the NJT-exclusive area of the station has about 60 backless seats made of grey steel, apparently sourced from a prison furniture supplier. They are indestructible, and painfully cold in winter, even in the heated space. The adjacent restroom has three urinals, two of which were installed at the wrong height. There is a good reason for all of this. NJT doesn’t want to pay for the constant LEO presence required to keep better seats available for legitimate commuters. The urinals are some kind of a fitness test.

What about the claim that the station layout impedes debarkation/embarkation? Most platforms are equipped with both stairs and escalators. When a NJT train is on the platform for debarkation, it seems to be  policy that the escalators cannot be used; they move in the down direction, disabling their use even as additional stairs. As with security, there is a likely reason. In a shared facility, who indemnifies who? A few years back, an elderly woman was strangled to death when her scarf got caught in the hand rail.

So rather than pay for insurance, which would require close attention to the emergency stop button, NJT passengers are required to climb two flights of stairs to the main concourse. How can a new station fix this artificial shortage of stairs?

They say we need skylights to  lift our spirits; the narrow view of a usually cloudy sky might compare favorably to Colorado’s Supermax. A cheap cup of coffee would be more appreciated. TV news stories are suspiciously thin;  one interviewed a single individual, probably all they could find.  Opinion polls mistake “Sure, it would be nice” for “I’ll pay for it.” So we have to find out how the public really feels about it.

My solution is a food-based metric, the Coffee Poll, with these questions:

• Would you trade a new Penn Station for a free Welcome to the Apple Cafe Americano?
• How about a latte with aspartame on the side?
• Latte with an extra shot of espresso and a pump of caramel syrup?
• Three shots over ice in a grande cup with five pumps of caramel syrup?
• A macchiato the way you like it?
• Venti caramel frappe?
• Frappe with white chocolate and an extra shot?

How sweet it is. Of  course, giving everyone a frappe could easily cost $20B, three times the price  of a new station with overpriced food courts. But somewhere in this list, there lies fungible reason. This survey will doubtless confirm that people don’t care about the height of the ceiling; they want creature comforts. It’s time to roll out my plan, which saves $6B:

• $100M a year to pay three guys $30M a year to watch the escalators.
• $100M a year for comfy, cat-themed seat cushions.
• Free lattes for all, free frapps for frequent travelers.
• $100M to lower the urinals.
• $100M to buy 10 additional tables for those who prefer to do something while waiting for their trains. These can be Walmart folding banquettes, marked up 100,000%, adorned with “I ❤️NY” stickers.
• $100M to replace expensive atrium skylights with off-brand LCDs sourced on Canal Street, connected to a Lenovo PC running AI, that will make you happier than you have a right to be.

I’ve renovated the experience of Penn Station for under a billion. I’ll watch the escalator buttons.

The Ediacaran Past; Oil on Panel (click to enlarge)

I’ve  recently explored painting inspired by fossil traces of remote geologic periods. The first three of this series cover these ancient spans:

Ediacaran; 635–538.8 Mya, during which life forms arose that have no obvious connection with the evolutionary tree that followed.

 Cambrian, 538.8 Mya – 486.85 Mya, during which complex life forms evolved, spurred by a biological “arms race”, to eat rather than be eaten.

Quaternary, 2 .6 Mya to present, during which Man took over the planet, with apparent intent to run it into the ground.

This is abstraction inspired by fact, informed by long hours of curiosity with  the strange visualizations provided by the optical microscope of rock samples, in  this case a Leitz Orthoplan equipped with epi-illumination.

If you stare long enough, you may find representations of homo in all the paintings, justified as the viewpoint presence. Remember that all that ever was lies under our feet; our borrowed atoms the substance of an unknown future.

The evolution of this nascent conflict is a little odd. Though in decline, classical war is preceded by the development of pretext, with complaints that may be true though frequently false, followed by negotiations that seek to convince some audience of the reasonableness of the plaintiff, followed or accompanied by mobilization, and finally, the  casus belli that leads directly to hostilities.

This time, Clausewitz does a headstand: Politics is nothing but the continuation of war with other means, at least now, with Venezuela. (For reference, Clausewitz actually wrote (Springer  Nature Link) War is nothing but the continuation of policy with other means’ (Clausewitz, 1993:77).

What some might have hoped would be a splendid little war looks now more like an old fashioned election, with the likker and money flowing freely. Trump wants to buy out the Bolivarian generals, but as they have been bought by the cartels, they have to be bought again. And as the cartels may actually have greater resources for that kind of disbursement than the  CIA,  so the Trump team’s offer must be two-edged, and one that they can’t refuse: Take a few million with a clear path to a pardon, or a one-way bus ticket to CECOT or Supermax.

This is likely why the (NBC) pardoning of former Honduras President Juan Orlando Hernández  has a specific audience,  as does the show of military hardware. Meanwhile, Maduro vanished for a while, probably on an old-fashioned stump tour for the same constituency.

With the scrutiny of Senate and House Armed Services committees of the “double-tap” boat strike, and the absence of actual U.S. mobilization, Maduro  senses weakness. This highlights an ageless truth about bluffing. The little guy can get away with it, unless the big guy has an institutionalized appetite for war. Still, we cannot discount the possibility that he will wake up with a horse in his bed.

Does Maduro breed horses?

***An offer he can’t refuse***

(BBC) US Navy commander ordered second Venezuela boat strike, White House says

“When you gaze long into an abyss the abyss also gazes into you.”

Friedrich Nietzsche

See (WP) David Ignatius; 50 years ago, he saw a startling document in the JFK file. Where is it now?

(WP) 50 years ago, he saw a startling document in the JFK file. Where is it now? Quoting,

The document said that “the Mexican government had investigated Kennedy’s assassination and concluded Cuba was responsible,” recalls Johnston, a lawyer and writer who has closely followed the assassination ever since.

…

Helms was usually Mr. Cool. But in this call, following our publication of “Did Cuba Murder JFK?,” he was more upset than I’d ever heard him. “How could you publish something like that?” he asked angrily…

 Ignatius was puzzled by the strength of Helm’s reaction at what should have been old news:

But when I hung up the phone that day, I knew that he was genuinely troubled that The Post had surfaced these issues.”

Thirty-six years later, in the present, Trump has ordered the release of all documents related to the assassination. Johnston’s document was not included. Ignatius notices a coincidence: Helm’s extreme sensitivity to mention of that document, and its continued absence. To save words, what follows, though speculation, is written in the language of fact.

All institutions have cultural inertia, the  traditional, unwritten rules of conduct. Of all the institutions of the federal government, the CIA has the least. There was a CIA of the plank-owners and their acolytes prior to the 1975  Church  and Pike Committees; a  deprecation after the 1991 Soviet breakup, a re-energized post-911 version  that looked to the plank owners for inspiration, and a minor revision of attitude in 2009 with the repudiation of enhanced interrogation techniques.

The CIA is the most malleable of institutions, a consequence of threats and opportunities that require constant improvisation. The history of intelligence services is replete with stories of mediocre bureaucracies transcended by personal daring, motivated by a patriotism which has no common definition. The very word alloys nicely with self-sacrificing illegality, heroism, the-end-justifies-the-means, bravery,  expediency, brutality… The road to Hell is paved with the the same bricks as the road to Heaven. Factual certainty of which road you are on is replaced by conviction.

In the pre-Church CIA, this variability was standard operating procedure, a kind of organizational free will that today exists only in Mossad. Facing extinction of their public service at the hands of the Committee, the plank-owners and their acolytes were desperate to preserve the most precious, hard-won assets for near-term posterity.

As is probably well understood by most readers, the assets were not CIA officers; they were foreign nationals, like Rolando Cubela Secades, mentioned in Johnston’s November 1989 piece as tasked with assassinating Castro. Or better known, Oleg Penkovsky, and Adolf Tolkachev. All three were caught; only Cubela escaped execution.

The institutional value of assets cannot be overstated. By some disputed accounts, Tolkachev’s intel justified an entire annual CIA budget, culminating in the successful design of the  F-15 as the preeminent air-dominance fighter of the era. Penkovsky may have  prevented World War III. Both assets were lost; what would you have sacrificed to preserve them? When opportunity presents, the cure might involve an expendable asset  — an adversary spy or mole left in place, sacrifice of a lesser asset, or the staging of a failure.

During the  Church/Pike hearings, the CIA director, William Colby was accused by internal critics of a confessional approach to the hearings, supplying an excess of information, some of which the committees had not requested, because  they were unaware of its existence. This was intended strategy. If we grant that the spymasters and the committees were equally smart, the CIA applied more smarts to the problem. The motivation of the committees was public service; for the plank owners, a battle for survival.

The inhabitants of the 7th floor, Colby, Thomas Karamessines et. al. devised a curation intended to be undetectable; intended to give the gaping maw of the committees the warm feeling of consuming a peanut butter and jelly sandwich, while minimizing damage to the core mission. In order of sacrifice:

• Domestic operations, not part of the CIA charter were first on the sacrifice list, even though most likely to result in  chargeable offenses.
• Foreign  assassination attempts directed at individuals widely perceived as  enemies.
• Foreign assassination attempts of individuals not so perceived, to further U.S. policy.
• Subject to particular exclusion were actions that, for diverse reasons, would result in broad damage to the American brand. See  (The Nation) Where’s the CIA’s Missing Jewel?
• A disclosure that could compromise an asset, or put the committees on a trail  that could intersect an asset, would be forbidden, unless required to avert a greater catastrophe.
• To avert the above, the disclosure would be made volatile, as a verbal note poorly represented in the transactions of the committees. This is why Karamessines allowed Johnston to see, but not copy, the document. A line of inquiry was plugged, replaced by risk that would decline with time.

What risk discomfited Helms? Since Cubela was released in 1979, and moved to Spain, he was not at risk. Embarrassment, threat of nuclear war, and conscience are  tertiary. Though it’s open season for the imagination, this exposition implies the risk centered on the first priority of intelligence, preservation of assets. Rolando Cubela Secades was not alone.

That explains 1989.  Whether the subject of Helms’ concern is alive may not be possible for the archivists to determine. Or they may not be aware of the existence of a document which has been sequestered. You don’t keep canceled checks forever.

We continue from DeepSeek and the AI Bubble; Napkin Calculation Part 2.

The bubble continues to grow, but is near popping. We live in an age of fabulous thinking, where false hopes are inspired by technology so alien to human experience, it becomes impossible for most of us to think critically about the subject. We substitute judgments based on credibility,  social standing, slick presentations, and the metrics of investment, which appear to generate new wealth based on market capitalization.  How can this substitute for understanding the subject?

It can’t. A market system that works for pricing soybeans can’t deal with AI on a rational basis.  Everybody can understand beans; nobody understands AI, even those who work in the field. Bear with me as I try to back fill the gap. If I partly succeed, you will have new doubts,  valuable in this fabulous age.

There is a thread going way back that bears on this. It began with Cantor’s diagonal slash of 1891.    While lying in a field in 1936, Alan Turing used Cantor’s trick to extend the results of Kurt Gödel. He invented the mostly-hypothetical Turing machine to prove that there are some problems which cannot be decided by computer programs. As part of the proof, Turing invented the Universal Turing Machine, a hypothetical programmable computer. Around 1938, John von Neumann, considered by many to have had the most extraordinary mind of any human, saw Turing’s proof as the basis of what would become the modern computer, which you are using right now. The von Neumann machine can do anything a computer can do, though it might take a long time to do it.

This is the paradigm of modern computing, with roots in the year 1891, built by giants standing on the shoulders of giants, where a computer program is equivalent to sequential execution of instructions, one step at a time.  You don’t have to know the math to realize that when a technical paradigm becomes embedded in society to this extent, it becomes a social truth, like the law of gravity. It remained inviolate, except in very minor ways (multiprocessing), until the advent of high resolution displays.

All this theory, this precise understanding, preceded the construction of the first modern computer. The AI bubble reverses this; huge data centers are under construction to execute AI paradigms, while the theory is weak or absent.

A 4K display, including subpixels, contains 24,883,200 addressable locations. A computer that executes one instruction at a time on each individual  pixel would be insufferably slow. Every chip  maker had to address this. Intel’s solutions were simple, AMD’s were wonky,  while Nvidia’s sophistication was capitalized by the game market. We owe a lot to Grand Theft Auto for where we are today. 

Nvidia et al. tinkered with the von Neumann machine. In place of a single computer that can do everything, they devised tiny computers, specialized to running game graphics, that could be placed in the thousands on a single chip. With each tiny “core” responsible for a manageable number of pixels, computer displays became dynamic, full of fun  and cash flow. In the early 2000’s, Nvidia realized that massive arrays of these simple, graphics-oriented cores, enhanced for the purpose, could take on some of the responsibilities of von Neumann machines. The massively parallel desktop computer became a reality with the Nvidia Tesla (not to be confused with the car maker) architecture.

AI based on evolved graphics processors has an upside and a downside. Nvidia has made possible the closest thing to AI that is currently practical. But as a descendant of the von Neumann architecture, albeit with many creative twists, it is a dead end.

In the next half decade, that billions of infrastructure will go out in the trash, destined for metal recyclers. All that investment will be lost, because it is premature.

This is dense, so I’ll continue shortly.

***Fate of Nvidia data centers***

(YouTube)  The 12th Anomaly: 3I/ATLAS Jets Stay Straight Across a Million Kilometers. Quoting,

In this in-depth breakdown, Harvard astrophysicist Avi Loeb walks us through why these tightly collimated jets should be smeared, curved, or spiraled—but instead stay fixed in orientation across distances so large they defy natural explanation. Loeb examines every possibility, from sunlight-triggered outgassing and fragmented debris trails to exotic ice pockets and rotational changes… and why none fully account for what the latest post-perihelion images show.

Disclaimer: I am torn between the  need to conceal the truth from a humanity who Can’t Handle the Truth, and the chance to go  viral on the shoulders of this melting cosmic snowman. I made this choice once before, in Groupon Planetary Flying Saucer Cruises, and nobody seemed to believe me, so what the hell. But first I’ll introduce you to the explanation devised by my friends in a secret government agency, PDA — the Plausible Denial Agency, known to most of you as MIB.

On the cosmic scale of things, 3I/Atlas is so small that the most powerful telescopes on earth or in space cannot produce an image of it. All they can see is the cloud around it. If there were no cloud, if the only thing present were the small massive body, then the telescope would produce a well known artifact known as the Airy disk. But the cloud is much larger, replacing the Airy disk with a bright blue-green glowing smudge. The glow is the result of electrons in the cloud,  separated from atoms by interaction with high energy particles from the sun. When an electron finds an atom to  recombine with, a photon, a  quanta of light is emitted. You can see for yourself at the local pizzeria, if it still has a “neon-argon-krypton” sign in the window.

Loeb points to “jets” in images taken by amateur astronomers as anomalies. There are no jets. At least one of the instruments is a Rowe-Ackermann-Schmidt astrograph, RASA, manufactured by Celestron Corporation. This is a low magnification, wide field instrument inappropriate for photography of such a tiny object. Pushed beyond its limits, the “jets” are the result of imperfections in the glass.

All visual telescopes incorporate glass. Amateur instruments are made of nothing else. The manufacture of optical glass remains one of the great trade secrets, of the few companies, Corning, Schott, Zeiss, Hoya, Ohara et al. It can take years to complete manufacture of a single crucible. So difficult is perfection that imperfections are tolerated with the reward  of esoteric qualities.

A long time is spent simply waiting for the glass to cool. If perfection is obtained, the cooled glass will be in a perfectly annealed state. If it is not, internal forces, push-pull, compress/stretch remain in the glass. These change the course of light through a lens made from this glass, or a mirror made of glass. One could remelt the glass and wait a few more years, but that costs money.

Even if perfect glass is delivered to the telescope maker, strain can occur when the optics are assembled. This is called “pinch”, which occurs when the lens or mirror is gripped too tightly. The RASA design is vulnerable to a second type of strain. The entire camera assembly is supported by the front lens, a large piece of glass known as the Schmidt corrector.  This weight creates strain. The corrector is vulnerable to yet a third form of strain, the result of the special process invented by Celestron to make them.

The “jets” are strain artifacts of the telescopes, nothing more.

Don’t believe me? Alright, here’s the real skinny. During a previous interstellar encounter, in 1987, the aliens got to Earth, and the result wasn’t pretty. In fact it was in pretty bad taste.  Carefully documented by a film crew in the wrong place at the wrong time, it caused the formation of MIB–APD, and a host of other black budget programs. The leaked documentary was disguised by APD. You can see the result here:

***Bad Taste***

I wonder what’s on the dinner menu tonight?